TNF: 49ers hanging by thread
The next installment of the NFC West’s oldest rivalry takes place Thursday night, as the 49ers (6-7) visit Los Angeles to battle the Rams (7-6). It will be the 152nd meeting between the two teams with the 49ers holding a 78-70-1 advantage.
In recent years, the 49ers owned this series, with Kyle Shanahan’s team winners of eight straight regular season matchups. But the 49ers blew a 10-point lead late in their 27-24 loss to the Rams in Week 3, a setback that looms particularly large heading into Thursday’s game.
The matchup is heavy with playoff implications. The 49ers, who beat Chicago 38-13 on Sunday, trail by two games both division-leading Seattle and the Washington Commanders, who presently hold the NFC’s final wild-card spot. With just three games remaining, San Francisco’s playoff hopes hang by a thread, and beating L.A. is a must.
The Rams come off a huge 44-42 shootout win over Buffalo. A win over San Francisco strengthens their standing in the wild-card race and keeps the pressure on the first-place Seahawks, who host the 9-4 Packers on Sunday night.
Both the 49ers and Rams have been slammed by injuries in 2024. The difference is that the Rams are getting healthier. The midseason return of receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua juiced up the Rams’ passing game, and QB Matthew Stafford is playing some of his best football as a result.
This week, the 49ers see the return of Pro Bowl DBs Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga, which will be key in dealing with Kupp and Nucua, neither of whom played in the Week 3 L.A. win. The 49ers recorded four sacks against Chicago, and rank 10th in the NFL with 35 QB takedowns, but they expect to again be without star defensive end Nick Bosa, who has missed the last three games with an oblique injury. Ex-Ram Leonard Floyd will be called on to try to pressure Stafford, who did not get sacked against Buffalo.
Even with the 49ers’ secondary being the healthiest it has been for awhile, give Stafford and Rams’ passing attack a solid advantage.
This game will likely be decided by red-zone play, on both sides of the ball. The 49ers field the league’s No. 3 overall defense and second-best pass defense — remarkable given the injuries. But, paradoxically, his highly ranked unit is next to last in defending the red zone. It’s not very successful at getting off the field on third down, either. Both deficiencies killed the 49ers in the Week 3 loss and in two other setbacks that saw them cough up fourth-quarter leads.
The Rams’ red-zone offense is middle of the pack, but has improved since the return of Kupp and Pucua. And the superb route-running and hands of both make them exceptional third-down options. (Nacua comes off a huge 12-catch effort against Buffalo, and last year hauled in 15 passes against the 49ers, in just his second ever NFL game.) Running back Kyren Williams has picked up his play of late, which could make the Rams’ red-zone offense even more difficult for San Francisco to stop.
As should be common knowledge by now, the 49ers’ red-zone offense, the league-leader in 2023, fell off a cliff this year. The absence of All-Pro back Christian McCaffrey is a major reason. So, too, has been the falloff in production from Deebo Samuel. The veteran receiver comes into Thursday’s game with just two TDs, though he has a résumé of playing well in prime time and doing so against the Rams. Tight end George Kittle did not reach the end zone against the Bears but his playmaking on Chicago’s end of the field was a reason Brock Purdy and the offense had one of their better red-zone performances of the season.
Another thing to recalled from the first meeting between these two teams in Week 3 was the phenomenal performance by San Francisco receiver Jauan Jennings. His 11 catches for 175 yards and three TDs ranks as one of the elite efforts by a wideout in 2024.
The 49ers’ offense can’t seem to shake the injury bug. In addition to losing CMC in the Buffalo debacle, San Francisco is now likely without both backups Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, the Louisville rook who suffered an ankle sprain Sunday in his NFL start. All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams, absent from the lineup since mid-November with an ankle injury, has been ruled out.
The 49ers recent stretch of success against Los Angeles could be attributed to a decisive edge in physicality, best illustrated by Samuel and Kittle and their punishing styles of play. But San Francisco’s aura of physical dominance has waned this season. The Rams’ offense is just too hot, the 49ers’ defense too unreliable, and the Purdy-led San Francisco attack too depleted to not give this one to the home team.
PICK: Los Angeles Rams 29, San Francisco 24
Key matchup: CBs Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward (SF) vs. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (LAR)
Key matchup: DE Leonard Floyd (SF) vs. T Rob Havenstein (LAR)
Key matcup: TE George Kittle (SF) vs. S Kameron Curl (LAR)