MNF doubleheader: Will Vikes seize opening?
The Buffalo Bills’ 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions late yesterday afternoon set the needles on the NFL’s Richter Scale to bouncing wildly.
The seismic outcome in the Motor City was felt all the way out to the Pacific Northwest, where the Green Bay Packers’ left Seattle with an impressive Sunday night road win, beating the Seahawks 30-13. (Josh Jacobs rushed for 94 yards and the Green Bay defense recorded seven sacks in the wire-to-wire victory.)
Players and fans in Philadelphia surely sensed the tremors. The Eagles (12-2) drew even with the Lions for the NFC’s best record by knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-13. Philadelphia clinches the NFC East title next weekend with a win or a Commanders loss.
But the strongest aftershocks from the Detroit setback will register in Minnesota on Monday night, in one of two games in the MNF doubleheader, when the Vikings (11-2) host the Chicago Bears (4-9). The Bills’ impressive win not only snapped the Lions’ 11-game winning streak; it opens the door Monday night for the Vikings (11-2) to move into a first-place tie with Detroit in the NFC North. (The Lions presently still hold the tiebreaker by beating Minnesota earlier this year. The two teams play in the season finale in Detroit.) Green Bay moves to within two games of the Lions, in what has to be the greatest single-season division battle in NFL history.
The Bears, playing out the string on a season that ran aground in Washington and, on Thanksgiving, in Detroit, have a different motivation. Chicago would like nothing better than to play spoiler to a division rival. The first game between these two teams in Week 12 went down to the wire, a 30-27 Minnesota win.
In the second game of the Monday doubleheader, the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) visit Las Vegas to take on the Raiders (2-11). Outside of Brock Bowers, Vegas offers little to anyone outside its Halloween-dressed fan base. The skidding Falcons, on the other hand, have a lot to play for. Losers of four straight, Atlanta, with a win, keeps pressure on NFC South-leading Tampa Bay (8-6). The Bucs, behind Baker Mayfield’s four touchdown passes, throttled the Chargers 40-17 in Los Angeles.
Let’s take a closer look at these two MNF contests.
Chicago at Minnesota
Monday Night Football, Dec. 16, 8:00 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN), ABC
The Bears did not show much in their first game under interim head coach Thomas Brown, losing big to the 49ers, 38-13. Against San Francisco, Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense got off to another slow start, held scoreless in the first half for the second straight game. A slow start Monday will all but ensure a Minnesota rout — Brian Flores’ blitz heavy schemes become especially difficult to deal with when he feels itchy to send the house against an offense down two or more possessions.
The Bears are dead last in the NFL in offense, yet rank as the NFL’s second-best in red-zone efficiency. In other words, they score when they get there. Williams had 340 yards passing in the first game between these two teams. Can he duplicate that performance? How often will he and Chicago threaten the Minnesota end zone? Will they do any damage when they get there?
That first matchup, in Chicago in Week 12, seemed to set off Minnesota’s Jordan Addison. Minnesota’s second-year receiver broke out of a heretofore slump with eight catches and 162 yards. (Last week, against Atlanta, Addison erupted again: eight more catches for 133 yards and three TDs.) Sam Darnold came through in the clutch in the first game against Chicago, marching his team on a game-winning drive in the final minute. A strong close to the season will have Darnold in the discussion for league MVP, especially if a big-time effort in prime time gets factored in.
We say that happens. Darnold throws three touchdowns, and the Vikings harass Williams all night. The rout is on.
PICK: Minnesota 33, Chicago 13
Key matchup: CB Jaylon Johnson (CHI) vs. WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (MIN)
Key matchup: QB Caleb Williams (CHI) vs. S Harrison Smith (MIN)
Atlanta at Las Vegas
Monday Night Football, Dec. 16, 8:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV), ABC
The famous ad slogan “What happens stays in Vegas” may come in to play Monday — who outside of the Falcons and Vegas fan bases will watch this unfortunate prime-time matchup and admit to knowing what happened?
Maybe that’s too harsh of an attitude. After all, the one thing the NFL teaches us pretty much every Sunday (or Monday) is that a game with little anticipation can rise from nowhere to become one of that week’s most compelling.
For that to happen, the Falcons’ talented offense needs to emerge from a serious rut. Kirk Cousins and Co. seemed to get off the mat during the first three quarters last week in Minnesota, only to be blanked in the fourth. The Vikings blitzed Atlanta’s defense for 21 unanswered points to close out a 42-21 win.
Atlanta does not face that level of firepower in Vegas. Its main objective will be to slow down Brock Bowers, the Raiders’ talented rookie tight end who over the last month has been closing the gap between him and Jayden Daniels for league Rookie of the Year honors. One problem for Bowers: Vegas QB Aidan O’Connell may miss Monday’s game with a knee issue.
We mentioned the struggling Atlanta offense. When the Falcons sat at 6-3, the addition of Cousins looked like the best free-agent acquisition this side of Saquon Barkley. In the four-game slide since, Cousins threw eight picks (including four in the loss to the Chargers) and exactly zero TDs. We would say Cousins crashed and burned, but the “burned” suggests an element of heat decidedly missing from the veteran QB’s play of late.
One would think a way out of this crisis is for Atlanta to run the football. But Falcons’ back Bijan Robinson has racked up 85+ yards in four of the last five games, so a lack of a ground game has not been the problem. One game, the issue is sacks; another it’s penalties. Atlanta is second in the NFL in passing but ranks in the bottom third in red-zone offense. In the losses to the Saints, Broncos and Chargers, the Falcons converted 12 of 41 third downs (29 percent).
Such deficiencies will likely not cost them against a lackluster and now depleted Vegas defense. DE Maxx Crosby had ankle injury surgery and will miss the rest of the season. But another off-putting start by Cousins will increase the calls from Atlanta fans for the team to look to the future and plug in the team’s top pick last spring, Michael Penix Jr. for the remaining two games.
PICK: Atlanta 22, Las Vegas 16
Key matchup: S Justin Simmons (ATL) vs. TE Brock Bowers (LV)
Key matchup: RB Bijan Robinson (ATL) vs. LB Robert Spillane (LV)