NFL Week 16: Finish line in sight
Behind the arm and legs of Justin Herbert, the Chargers and a rare free kick, the Los Angeles Chargers rallied to beat the Denver Broncos, 34-27, on Thursday Night Football.
Herbert threw for 280 yards on 23-of-30 passing and tossed two touchdowns. The first scoring throw came early in the fourth when he scrambled left and found Derius Davis behind the Denver defense for a 19-yard score. That TD, followed by a remarkable catch by Joshua Palmer for the two-point conversion, gave the Chargers their first lead of the game, 27-24.
Herbert also rushed for 28 yards, converting multiple third downs with runs.
L.A. iced the game when the fifth-year QB directed a 90-yard touchdown drive, culminating with a 34-yard catch-and-run score by tight end Hassan Haskins. The key play on the six-snap drive was a 43-yard run by Gus Edwards, who also rushed for two touchdowns.
Bo Nix, who threw two touchdowns, drove Denver into L.A. territory, where a 55-yard field goal by Will Lutz ended the scoring. The Chargers recovered the ensuing onsides kick.
A pivotal and unusual play occurred at the end of the first half. Interference was called on Denver’s punt team, and the Chargers opted for a free kick by Cameron Dicker. The successful 57-yard field goal cut Denver’s lead to eight points.
It was first such successful free kick since 1976. Make note; it will be on the midterm.
The Chargers move to 9-6 and greatly strengthen their odds for making the playoffs. The Broncos fall to 9-6 and both teams will clinch a playoff spot with a win in one of their final two games.. These two teams could meet again in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
Let’s move ahead now to this weekend’s other games, where a couple of key division games await.
We’ve hit that point in the season where the drama of NFL football is such that the league needs to use Saturday to catch the spillover.
That’s right. There are two games this Saturday and both ripple with playoff tension.
First, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) host the Houston Texans (9-5). The Chiefs, the masters of the one-possession win, did the unthinkable last Sunday and beat Cleveland by double-digits. The Texans themselves have been involved in a boatload of one-score games, so expect this matchup to be tight.
Sunday also sees a key divisional confrontation taking place in the nation’s capital. The 12-2 Eagles visit the Commanders (9-5) and will clinch the NFC East with a win. Philadelphia is now tied with Detroit for the NFC’s best record and need this game to keep pace. A Washington victory gets Jayden Daniels and crew closer to the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2020.
Sunday’s other high-profile game has the Minnesota Vikings visiting Seattle in the late window of games. As with the Eagles, the Vikings need a win to stay tied with Detroit, who is heavily favored to beat the Bears in Chicago. Seattle is tied with the Rams for first place in the NFC West, so a lot is riding on this matchup for the Seahawks.
Here’s a closer look at the Week 16 games.* Click the links below to access a specific matchup.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs, Dec. 21, 1:00 p.m. ET, NBC
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, Dec. 21, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m., FOX
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks, Dec. 22, 4:05 p.m., FOX
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS**
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys, Dec. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
*The preview for the Monday Night Football game between the New Orleans and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field will be posted Monday, 12/23.
**The Patriots-Bills game was flexed from its original 1 p.m. ET start time to 4:25 p.m. ET.
Texans @ Chiefs
Saturday, Dec. 21, 1:00 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO), NBC
Both teams have clinched their respective divisions. The defending champs want a win Saturday to stay ahead of Buffalo; the Texans look to secure a home game in the first round.
Despite the elite talent at quarterback, both teams field strong defenses but have offenses that are middle of the pack in most statistical categories. This game will likely be decided when the Chiefs have the ball in the red zone. Mahomes and Co. rank near the bottom in converting such opportunities, but the Texans have one of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL. Which unit bucks the pattern will be pivotal.
Last week, the KC offense did better in that area, but it may be on an upswing. The Chris Jones-led defense will spend Saturday making sure C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense remain mediocre. Also, the Chiefs are expert at winning close games. Here’s another.
PICK: Kansas City 20, Houston 17
Key matchup: S Jimmie Ward (HOU) vs. TE Travis Kelce (KC)
Steelers @ Ravens
Saturday, Dec. 21, 4:30 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD), FOX
The AFC’s best rivalry resumes at M&T Bank with first place in the North on the line. Lamar Jackson has been brilliant for the Ravens, as his 34 TD passes and quarterback rating of 120.7 attests. One more game with a rating of 125.0 or higher ties him with Aaron Rodgers for the most in a season (nine). He goes against a Pittsburgh pass defense that is vulnerable when edge rushers T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig do not get to the quarterback. And, as we know, Jackson is hard to get to
Combining Jackson’s exploits with Derrick Henry's running prowess, no AFC offense has inspired more awe this season than the Ravens’. Yet, Baltimore still comes in with five losses. That’s because the team’s pass defense is even shakier than Pittsburgh’s, allowing a second-worst 264 yards per game through the air.
But can Russell Wilson, George Pickens, and the Pittsburgh passing game take advantage? We do not think so. Will Henry be able to run against Pittsburgh? It may not matter, as Jackson and wideout Zay Flowers will have big days, while the Ravens’ stout run defense should shut down the Steelers’ ground game.
PICK: Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 19
Key matchup: DE T.J. Watt (PIT) vs. T Roger Rosengarten (BAL)
Key matchup: WR George Pickens vs. CB Marlon Humphrey (BAL)
Cardinals @ Panthers
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC), FOX
The Panthers had been playing better football recently but regressed in the 30-14 loss to Dallas in Week 15. The Cardinals logged a huge win over New England to snap a three-game losing streak and pull within a game of NFC West-leading Seattle.
So this road game is huge for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The Arizona offense will try to attack the Panthers at their weakest point by giving them a heavy dose of RB James Conner. The Carolina run defense is insufferably bad, surrendering a whole 30 yards more per game than the second-worst run defense in the NFL (Giants). The Murray-Trey McBride connection will then exploit the seams of a softened-up Carolina secondary.
While QB Bryce Young has played okay at times since returning as a starter, the Panthers’ best offense is still three Chuba runs and a cloud of dust. The Cardinals’ run defense is nothing special, so look for Hubbard to have a 100-yard day and keep things just interesting enough for the home team to lose a close one.
PICK: Arizona 21, Carolina 17
Key matchup:
Titans @ Colts
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN), CBS
This game looks like a grand opportunity for the Colts, who come off a road thumping at the hands of Denver, to keep the pressure on the Chargers for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. But not so fast.
Months ago, optimists for these teams saw this matchup as a showcase for two promising second-year quarterbacks. That’s not happening. The offensively challenged Titans benched the awful Will Levis following his three-interception, 89-yard passing day against that juggernaut Cincinnati defense. His replacement, Mason Rudolph, is no great shakes. Still, the mere act of making such a change can have immediate benefits, and we expect Rudolph to inject some life into the Tennessee attack.
But where we think Tennessee will cause Indy problems is on the other side of the ball. The Titans boast one of the league’s elite defenses, led by Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons in the front seven and a solid secondary. Its pass defense will bedevil Anthony Richardson, the other second-year QB, whose two-pick game against Denver rivaled Levis’ Week 15 for ineptitude.
We say Richardson throws two more picks Sunday, the Tennessee run D contains Jonathan Taylor, and Rudolph makes enough plays through the air to land our “upset” special.
PICK: Tennessee 19, Indy 14
Key matchup: LB Harold Landry III (Ten) vs. T Matt Goncalves (IND)
Browns @ Bengals
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, OH), CBS
The Bengals must run the table and receive a lot of help to reach the postseason. The first step in making that improbability happen is to beat interstate and division rival Cleveland.
The battle between a still-tough Browns pass defense and Cincinnati’s explosive passing game gives this matchup its entertainment value. Bengals QB Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing touchdowns. His favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase, is posting one of the greatest receiving years in recent memory. His head-to-heads with Cleveland’s elite corner, Denzel Ward, stand to be riveting. The key for the Bengals attack will be keeping star DE Myles Garrett and his 11 sacks away from Burrow.
You're never quite sure what to expect with Jameis Winston and the Browns’ offense. Brilliant games from Winston against the Broncos and Ravens are counterbalanced by multiple-interception starts, such as his three-INT game last week against Kansas City. Despite handcuffing Tennessee’s anemic offense last week, the Bengals' defense is soft, so we think Winston and Jerry Jeudy will resume their chemistry and put up big numbers Sunday.
The issue is whether Winston steers clear of crippling mistakes. We predict he will make a couple of game-changing ones, and Burrow and Chase will light up Cleveland’s defense.
PICK: Bengals 28, Cleveland 23
Key matchup: CB Denzel Ward (CLE) vs. WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Key matchup: WR Jerry Jeudy (CLE) vs. DB Mike Hilton (CIN)
Giants @ Falcons
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA), FOX
The big news surrounding this game is, of course, Atlanta’s benching of veteran QB Kirk Cousins in favor of first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. For some, the timing seems odd, given that Atlanta still has a legit shot at the NFC South crown.
But Cousins’ play over the past five games was apparently that unforgivable. Penix clearly gives the Atlanta attack an element of movement and an ability to make plays off-script. The Giants’ defense come in with 41 sacks, and the thought of an immobile Cousins as a stationary target likely facilitated the switch. Penix still has a flock of talented playmakers to help him, led by RB Bijan Robinson, who has posted 10 games this season with 100-plus yards.
New York has been hit with injuries — Brian Burns and Malik Nabers are among those players listed as questionable — and the offense is a mess, scoring more than 22 points in a game just once this season. Remember that New York passed on Penix in the draft (though no Big Blue fan should be complaining about the pick of Nabers) and is now stuck finishing the season with a rotation of Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock, neither of whom is grabbing at the opportunity with any gusto.
Lock starts against the Falcons with DeVito in concussion protocol. The Falcons will come at New York with one of the weakest pass rushes in the league — will Lock take advantage and get the ball downfield to Nabers?
Not enough to turn the tide in the Giants’ favor.
PICK: Atlanta 22, New York 13
Key matchup: Edge Brian Burns (NYG) vs. T Kaleb McGary (ATL)
Key matchup: WR Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. CB A.J. Terrell (ATL)
Rams @ Jets
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium (Meadowlands, NJ), CBS
Two offenses with a lot of talent in the passing game give this matchup some juice. This is a huge contest for the Rams, who are tied with Seattle atop the NFC West. Winners of five of their last six, L.A. comes in with a lot of momentum. They also bring with them an extra three days of rest.
The 49ers mostly shut down the Rams’ offense in the rain last Thursday. The Jets’ pass defense, led by All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner, is among the league’s best, but Matthew Stafford and his receiving tandem of Kupp and Nacua represent a formidable challenge. The Jets’ front seven often falls prey to a strong ground game for most of the season, so we look for Kyren Williams to post a 100-yard day.
On offense, the Jets finally have something to feel good about after beating Jacksonville. Aaron Rodgers has been rolling of late, and Davante Adams comes off a huge game (nine catches, 198 yards) against the Jaguars. The Rams’ defense kept San Francisco out of the end zone, but the unit is likely closer to the one that surrendered 42 points to Buffalo the game before.
We do not expect the Jets to duplicate the Bills’ point surge, but we predict they will pull off the upset in the weekend’s most exciting game.
PICK: Jets 33, Rams 30
Key matchup: WR Puka Nacua (LAR) vs. CB Sauce Gardner (NYJ)
Key matchup: DE Kobie Turner (LAR) vs. T Olu Fasanu (NYJ)
Lions @ Bears
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Soldier Field (Chicago, IL), FOX
Still licking their wounds from the home loss to Buffalo, the Lions catch a break by drawing the Bears, losers of eight in a row.
The injuries that have slammed Detroit’s defense this season finally caught up with them against Buffalo. Whether that unit is now exploitable may not be known based on Sunday, even though the Bears’ receiving trio of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore should pose a threat to any secondary. Chicago tight end Cole Kmet has been shackled in recent games; getting him going could open things up for Caleb Williams and the passing game.
But then there’s the drama now surrounding Williams. The No. 1 overall pick played so-so against Minnesota Monday night. Still, a viral sideline episode late in that game raises more questions about his leadership and emotional readiness, and whether benching him might be in his — and the team’s — best interest. Something to monitor should the Bears and Williams get off to a slow start on Sunday.
There’s nothing wrong with Jared Goff and the Detroit offense, that’s for sure. The Bears’ defense, at home in cold weather, might put up more resistance, but Detroit’s running game makes the NFC North leaders ready for a slog in less-than-ideal conditions. The matchup of Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown (14 catches against Buffalo) and Bears’ corner Jaylon Johnson could be captivating.
PICK: Detroit 31, Chicago 20
Key matchup: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs. CB Jaylon Johnson (CHI)
Key matchup: S Brian Branch (DET) vs. TE Cole Kmet (CHI)
Eagles @ Commanders
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET, Northwest Stadium (Washington, D.C.), FOX
The other big divisional tilt among the early games features these two longtime NFC East rivals. The Eagles pulled even with Detroit in the standings after taking care of business at home against Pittsburgh. Jalen Hurts leads an exceptionally balanced attack against a Washington defense that has proven to be tough to throw on but susceptible to the run. It can’t be good news for Washington that Saquon Barkley, the league leader in rushing and scrimmage yards, comes off an average outing against the Steelers.
Jayden Daniels and Washington came within an eyelash of losing in New Orleans but returned home, where they’ve been tough to beat this season. Daniels’ production has cooled recently, while Philadelphia’s pass defense has shot to the top of NFL rankings. The matchup of Terry McLaurin against Philadelphia’s secondary could determine the winner of this game.
We think the Eagles’ defense contains McLaurin, shuts down Brian Robinson Jr. and the running game, and keeps Daniels off balance most of the day. And we look for Barkley to post 125-plus scrimmage yards.
PICK: Philadelphia 28, Washington 23
Key matchup: RB Saquon Barkley (PHI) vs. LB Bobby Wagner (WSH)
Key matchup: CB Quinyon Mitchell (PHI) vs. WR Terry McLaurin (WSH)
Vikings @ Seahawks
Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:05 p.m. ET, Lumen Field (Seattle, WA), FOX
This is the showcase of the late-window games. The Seahawks were routed at home in Week 15 by one NFC North team and now draw another. Against the Packers, Geno Smith and his Seattle gang struggled to pass the ball. Seattle converted just 4-of-13 third downs, and while the Vikings’ pass defense ranks near the bottom in yardage allowed, it is a formidable unit to beat on third down. A significant individual matchup will be Seattle's left tackle, Charles Cross, against edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, Minnesota’s best pass rusher.
Minnesota is a top-five defense against the run, so do not expect Seattle’s usually dormant ground game to find its legs on Sunday.
Sam Darnold continues his case for MVP consideration. This week's most compelling matchup will be the Minnesota receiver tandem of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison squaring off against Seattle corners Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. So, of course, keep an eye out for Vikes tight end T.J. Hockenson to do the most damage.
A massive game for both — the Vikings are even with Detroit at the peak of the NFC North, and the Seahawks are in a dead heat with the Rams in the NFC West.
PICK:
Key matchup: Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. CB Riq Woolen (SEA)
Key matchup: LB Jonathan Greenard (MIN) vs. T Charles Cross (SEA)
Patriots @ Bills
Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, Rich Stadium (Orchard Park, NY), CBS
Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense have been a wonder to behold the past two weeks, ringing up 90 points in two road games. They return home and look to avoid a letdown against division rival New England.
The Patriots might have a chance Sunday if they can exploit a Buffalo defense that has made every single point in the Allen-led scoring barrage. But Drake Maye is neither Matthew Stafford nor Jared Goff, and his corps of playmakers would not see snaps playing in Detroit or for the Rams. In other words, do not expect New England to keep up with Buffalo’s torrid pace
Everything is clicking right now for the Bills’ offense. James Cook and Allen run the ball effectively, and Allen distributes the ball during the passing game. So … can the Patriots’ defense slow down this offense? The forecast is for cold and a chance of snow, but, even so, Buffalo put up 35 points against San Francisco in terrible conditions the last time they played at home. New England’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in most statistical categories, but divisional games, even between teams so different in quality, often make for slugfests.
But there will be no slugfests this Sunday in Buffalo.
PICK: Buffalo 31, New England 10
Key matchup: CB Christian Gonzalez (NE) vs. WR Amari Cooper (BUF)
Jaguars @ Raiders
Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV), CBS
A combined record of 5-26 makes this game the low point of the 2024 season. But it’s on the schedule and still needs to be played — at least that’s what the league office keeps telling us.
The Raiders made a game of it against Atlanta on Monday night, losing 15-9 to Atlanta, but coming back from a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to throw a scare into the Falcons. Reserve QB Desmond Ridder stepped in for the injured Aidan O’Connell, who is healthy to practice this week. The Raiders will likely go with O’Connell if he’s cleared to play, and he will want to target star rookie tight end Brock Bowers early and often.
The Jaguars also turn to a backup QB to close their disastrous season. Former New England QB Mac Jones starts his eighth game of the season, and his play so far indicates why the Pats gave up on him. He did throw for a season-best 294 yards last week against the Jets, but he also turned the ball over twice. Jones needs to play a clean game for Jax to leave Vegas with some money and a road win.
And we’re confident he will. With no Maxx Crosby to worry about, Jones has his best day of the year.
PICK: Jacksonville 24, Las Vegas 20
Key matchup: Edge Josh Hines-Allen (JAX) vs. T Colton Miller (LV)
49ers @ Dolphins
Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL), CBS
In August, we circled this game for a number of reasons, one of which was we figured it would be between two playoff-bound teams. Funny how an NFL season can play out.
Another reason was to see a reunion of Miami head coach Mike McDaniel and the team he used to coach until 2022. This is the second meeting between Miami/McDaniel and the 49ers, the first occurring two years ago in Santa Clara, when an irrelevant quarterback named Purdy filled in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo and led San Francisco to a 33-17 win.
Brock Purdy is still in the driver’s seat, but the San Francisco offense is a shell of itself because of injuries and poor play. Offensive tackle Trent Williams will not play Sunday again. Nor will rookie RB Isaac Guerendo, who had replaced injured backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. The Dolphins present a tough pass defense and should contain a 49ers receiving corps diminished by Deebo Samuel’s subpar season.
Miami’s offense sputtered in two of its last three games. Now rumors are circulating that the team wants to move star receiver Tyreek Hill. That distraction probably will not hurt the Miami offense against an unreliable San Francisco defense all season. Even the return of Nick Bosa will not keep Miami from moving the ball and scoring this week.
The 49ers’ season hit rock bottom in the 12-6 loss to the Rams. The Thursday night setback not only all but eliminated San Francisco from the playoffs, but it featured a 49ers defender, De’Vondre Campbell, walking off the field and quitting the team during the second half. Unfortunately, hitting bottom does not mean they start heading back towards the light this Sunday.
PICK: Miami 30, San Francisco 20
Key matchup: WR Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. CB Jalen Ramsey (MIA)
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Sunday, Dec. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium (Dallas, TX), NBC
A month ago, these two teams watched their respective seasons fade with injuries. Now, both teams are getting healthier and playing winning football. The NFC South-leading Bucs are riding the hot arm of Baker Mayfield and the return of receiver Mike Evans.
But Tampa is more than those two stars; the Bucs have been a terrifically balanced team in 2024. Rookie running Bucky Irving and the Tampa ground game have been effective all year, and Tampa is difficult to stop on third down and in the red zone. The Bucs will undoubtedly look to rush the ball against a suspect Cowboys run defense. If they block Micah Parsons coming off the edge, their passing game will also prosper, especially with Dallas’ best corner, Travon Diggs, lost for the season with a knee injury.
As good as Tampa’s offense was in the second half against the Chargers last Sunday, the Tampa defense catalyzed a 31-0 blitz. This Sunday, that unit faces Dallas QB Cooper Rush, who had his best game of the season in the win over Carolina, partly because the offense rediscovered receiver CeeDee Lamb. Tampa’s pass defense can be beaten if Rush gets protection Sunday night.
But the star of Dallas’ recent surge has been running back Rico Dowdle, who seems to set a personal best rushing day with each new game. The strength of the Bucs’ defense is their run defense, so Dowdle going against veteran LB Lavonte David and the Tampa front seven will be worth watching.
Dallas has struggled at home this year, and the Bucs show the capacity to win big road games. We foresee Baker and Evans continuing their downfield magic and Tampa winning convincingly.
PICK: Tampa Bay 29, Dallas 21
Key matchup: CB Jamel Dean (TB) vs. CeeDee Lamb (DAL)