Must-see 2024 NFL rookie QB battles

After the first 12 picks in this year’s draft were complete, the 2024 quarterback class was destined to be forever linked to that celebrated 1983 draft, which also saw six quarterbacks, including three Hall of Famers, taken in Round 1.

With the countdown to the 2024 CFB season now ticking down to weeks, days, and hours, the likely head-to-head games between rookie first-round QBs are all over the schedule, which got us wondering about that 1983 NFL campaign. Did the three Hall of Fame QBs from that hallowed class play against each other?

The answer is no: Denver’s John Elway (No. 1 overall) did not go up against fellow rookie phenom Dan Marino (No. 27), and neither faced Jim Kelly (No. 14 overall), the future Bills' legend, who signed with the Houston Gamblers of the first USFL and did not join the NFL until 1986.

With no real rival league poaching the league’s talent, the 2024 schedule will give NFL fans an unprecedented number of games in which first-round quarterbacks should face one another, barring injury or other unpredictable interruptions.

From that standpoint, the top three picks of the 2024 class — Caleb Williams (Bears), Jayden Daniels (Commanders), and Drake Maye (Patriots) — perhaps compare more directly to the 2023 draft than to the collection bracketed by Elway and Marino. Last year also saw a run of regarded rookie QBs (four in the first 33 overall picks), and because three of those went to the AFC South, face-to-face encounters were unavoidable, unless injury intervened. 

How will such matchups between first-round rookie QBs play out in 2024? Unfortunately, injury already derailed a couple of promising matchups. NFC North face-offs between Williams and J.J. McCarthy were scuttled when Minnesota’s top pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in the team’s preseason opener against the Raiders.

As the 2024 preseason progresses, teams are already turning the future into the present, with teams announcing that their top picks in the spring draft are to start Week 1 of the new season.

We rank and break them accordingly. We also feel, however, that it will be useful to check out upcoming games between rookie QBs and those graduates of the 2023 class.* This makes sense since we will inevitably compare this rookie QB class to how last year’s gang of four performed.

*We are including Tennessee's Will Levis in this group, even though he was the second pick (No. 33 overall) of the second round in 2023.

Rookie head-to-head games

1. Chicago Bears (Caleb Williams) at Washington Commanders (Jayden Daniels), Week 8

The first overall pick visits the No. 2 overall pick in what will be the most anticipated rookie QB tussle of 2024. In preseason play, Williams has produced some off-platform and onstage moments emblematic of his best play at ‘SC. Working mostly short areas and underneath, Daniels was sharp enough after two preseason appearances (12 of 15, 123 yards) to be anointed the Week 1 starter.

When this midseason tilt rolls around, both will have had their ups and downs, but Williams, further along in his development, gets the win. And he will have the Bears’ front office to thank for that: In addition to drafting Odunze ninth overall, Chicago traded for Pro Bowl wideout Keenan Allen (though mid-August reports of Allen’s conditioning should have Bears' fans concerned). This influx of talent should help offset the bouts of inconsistency Williams will most likely face as a rookie.

Look for Daniels, on the other hand, to have a rookie season akin to the one Bryce Young endured in 2023. The Commanders this offseason tried to patch up one of the worst offensive lines in recent memory, but they didn’t do enough. Sure, new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is known as an innovator, but your attack is only as creative as your quarterback is upright. 

2. New England Patriots (Drake Maye) at Chicago Bears (Williams), Week 10

Chicago fans get their first look at what they have vs. what could have been. Maye, the strong-armed rookie quarterback from North Carolina, surpassed even Williams as a draft prospect in the estimation of some (including NFLDraftscout.com). Midway through the 2024 exhibition season, new Pats head coach Jerod Mayo seems reluctant to commit to Jacoby Brissett, who signed as a free agent during the offseason. Maye took only three drop-backs in the preseason opener but outplayed Brissett the following week.

Signs are pointing to the rookie getting the nod. Mayo may have tipped his hand by saying Maye is “ready to run an NFL huddle,” and the traditional route of sitting a prized rookie behind a veteran bridge QB is going the way of every-down inside linebackers. Instead, management and fans seem more impatient to find out if high-profile QB prospects can sink or swim. Throw them into the deep end of the pocket, they say.

Expect Maye to have several starts by this Week 10 matchup. Unfortunately, New England management did little to stockpile established playmakers around the rookie, so we have to give the nod to Williams to go 2-0 against fellow first-year signal-callers.

3. Atlanta (Michael Penix Jr. ) at Denver (Bo Nix), Week 11

After Penix’s so-so performance in the preseason opener, the Atlanta coaching staff decided to sit the rookie for the final two exhibition games. If he is to hold a clipboard and observe vet Kirk Cousins all season, why not have a look at him these final two meaningless games?

And, if Cousins is, as many predict, leading the Falcons to a playoff berth, why are we putting this unlikely rookie-vs.-rookie matchup No. 3?

What intrigues about a Penix-Bo Nix matchup is the renewal of the two QBs who led the way to arguably the two most dramatic games of the Pac-12’s final season. Also, we predict an aging Cousins will underperform in his new digs, and an overrated Falcons defense will fold against improved offenses within the NFC South.

If this happens, Atlanta will be sub-.500 when this game rolls around. So, pencil Penix in as the starter when Atlanta travels to the Mile High City.

The Broncos announced Nix as their Week 1 starter before the team’s final exhibition game. Two solid preseason outings from the former Oregon Ducks standout likely convinced head coach Sean Payton to give him the starting job ahead of former Jets QB and No. 3 overall pick Zach Wilson. But overlooked and underappreciated is an alternative theory floating around the offices at the Hall of Football: The chance to roll out a player whose first and last names combined have the fewest number of letters (five) in the history of team sports proved just too alluring. Trivia or trivial? You decide.

Through the first ten weeks of 2024, Nix and head coach Sean Payton are meshing in a way that Peyton and Russell Wilson could only have dreamed. Denver comes out on top no matter who quarterbacks the Falcons. 

4. Atlanta Falcons (Michael Penix Jr.) at Washington Commanders (Daniels), Week 17

Conditions foreseen before the Penix-Nix battle allow this matchup to transpire, too: Penix has replaced Cousins and leads mathematically eliminated Falcons against Washington and first-year signal-caller Jayden Daniels, who has defied the odds and the relentless punishment to play in this showdown.

If the two rookies do square off, look for an absolute barnburner between the guy we think is the best pure thrower of the football in this year’s rookie group (Penix) versus Daniels, possibly the best combination of runner and passer of that same group. Let’s go with Penix in this matchup.

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Rookies vs. second-year QBs

While the following games do not pit two 2024 first-round QBs against one another, they should give this year’s top quarterback picks an idea of where they stand against last year’s rookie crew and, in one case, against a long-time veteran. 

1. Pittsburgh at Denver (Bo Nix), Week 2

This game features just one QB drafted in either of the last two drafts, but it is whom the host Broncos line up against that drives this game’s top ranking. New Steelers’ QB Russell Wilson returns to Denver, where he spent two seasons undercutting his chances of donning a HOF jacket. There is still a chance that former Chicago quarterback Justin Fields will unseat Wilson and become the starter, but here’s hoping that does not happen, at least not until after Week 2. 

For Nix, he makes his Denver debut. Under usual circumstances, this would be the top news, but for Denver fans, his maiden start takes on special significance with Wilson and Sean Payton shooting daggers at each other. Where is Greg Williams and his bag of bounties when you need them?

2. Chicago (Williams) at Houston (C.J. Stroud), Week 2

It seems fitting that Williams goes up against C.J. Stroud, last year’s No. 2 overall pick. Stroud posted a generational rookie campaign in 2023, setting a standard against which Williams and all QBs in this year’s rookie class will be measured. It will be a Texas-sized feather in Caleb’s cap to leave Houston with a W.

3. Tennessee (Will Levis) at Chicago (Williams), Week 1

Williams’ career and Soldier Field debut kicks off in 2024 as the Bears welcome the Titans and Levis, who come off a rookie season flush with tantalizing moments. Levis exudes a Jim McMahon-type swagger, but we doubt Chicago fans will warm to that so early in a new season.

4. Houston (Stroud) at New England (Maye), Week 6

Hall of Football thinks Maye has the tools to be this draft’s C.J. Stroud. So this game, coming as it does one-third of the way through the season, could serve as an adequate gauge of Maye’s progress. 

5. Carolina (Bryce Young) at Chicago (Williams), Week 5

This is a clash of the top overall picks from the last two drafts. Bryce Young hopes that all the bruises from his rookie campaign have healed and that the future of him and the Panthers is trending upwards. Despite a 2-15 season a year ago, Carolina possesses one of the league’s best defenses, and they will give Williams more than he can handle in pulling off a road upset. 

6. New England (Maye) at Tennessee (Levis), Week 9

Two quarterbacks, not unlike in physical traits, meet here in what could be a pivotal midseason clash. Pats fans hope to have a feel by this point whether Maye is the long-term answer at quarterback. As for the other fanbase, do not be surprised if Titans followers are frustrated by Levis’ erratic play and are already looking to the 2025 draft for his successor. Maye and the Pats’ D stone-washes Levis in this game.

7. Indianapolis (Anthony Richardson) at New England (Maye), Week 13

This late-season game could move higher up the ranking, depending on whether either or both teams are vying for a playoff spot. Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson showed himself to be an intriguing player before a shoulder injury in Week 5 shut down his rookie season. Playing part-time as a rook, Richardson still needs to demonstrate that he can run an NFL offense. We are guessing this matchup will not make anyone forget Manning vs. Brady, but we are going with the home team in this one.

8. Tennessee (Levis) at Washington (Daniels), Week 13

If his first year is any indication, Levis has the presence, grit, and physical talent to be must-watch TV. Like Richardson, there are questions about whether he can and will learn the nuances of the position — that and the Tennessee franchise does not sport a history of developing top-flight passing attacks. The Titans defense, always rugged, looks to feast on Washington’s offensive line and make life miserable for Daniels. Fortunately, at this point of the season, few fans will be at FedEx Field to see their team and new franchise cornerstone get manhandled.

Second-year QB matchups

1. Houston (Stroud) against Tennessee (Levis), Week 12 and Week 18

Here, we feature a pair of divisional matchups between second-year quarterbacks that will give the AFC South a unique flavor in 2024. Levis is a fiery gunslinger out of the McMahon and Favre mold, but Stroud took apart the conference a year ago as easily as he dismantled the legacy of S2 tests. At least for 2024, we expect him and Houston to continue to handle business within the AFC South. The Week 12 game could be critical for both teams' playoff chances. A win in the Week 18 clash could mean the difference between playing in the postseason or watching it from a couch.

2. Houston (Stroud) against Indianapolis (Richardson)

Another interesting matchup of Year 2 QBs. Stroud is by far the more polished quarterback, both as a passer and in terms of conducting an NFL offense — he is what the Colts can only hope Richardson develops into. It seems that, until he gets more in-game experience, Richardson will have to rely on his immense athleticism and broken-play prowess to make do. Those traits might be enough to steal one of these two games against Houston, but we would not bet on it. Their Week 1 game marks a great start to the NFL season; curious to see where the two teams are in Week 8.