CFP Picture: Decision-Sunday thoughts

Tick, tick, tick. . .

The College Football Playoff selection show will air on ESPN, beginning at noon ET Sunday.

The show is scheduled to last four hours, concluding at 4 p.m. ET, though as has been the case in previous years, the rankings and playoff selections will be unveiled in the earlier part of the broadcast window.

While we wait for the first 12-team College Football Playoff field to be revealed , let’s try to make sense of what needs to be determined after Saturday’s Power 4 conference championship games, especially considering none Power 4 Boise State locked up the first automatic bid on Friday.

After that the Power 4 conference champions were decided, most in dramatic fashion — Oregon, Georgia, Arizona State and Clemson. They are in the mix for first-round byes to home games to being a part of the bubble debate.

Looking at the new 12-team format by conference championship games, through the eyes of The Athletic CFB writers:

ACC: Clemson 34, SMU 31

No. 8 SMU (11-2) erased a 31-14 third-quarter deficit with a fourth-quarter surge, tying the score with 16 seconds left. But Nolan Hauser won the ACC title for No. 17 Clemson (10-3) with a dramatic 56-yard field goal as time expired — sending the Tigers to the Playoff … and SMU to a bubble debate with Alabama.

SMU or Alabama: Who will get the final spot?

The Mustangs’ loss to Clemson leaves the door open for them to get left out of the field, even though they were ranked three spots above Alabama through 12 games.

“They’ve said we’re good enough,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said Friday.

So, will the selection committee take the bold, controversial step of kicking out a team that lost its conference title game on a last-second field goal for a three-loss team that watched championship games from the couch? Austin Mock’s projections model for The Athletic favors SMU to get the bid at 79 percent to Alabama’s 21 percent.

It’s foolish to assume anything after the committee’s decision last season regarding Florida State. Critics will point to Alabama’s schedule strength and its 3-1 record against current Top 25 teams, compared to SMU’s 0-2 mark. But SMU did several things Alabama did not. The Mustangs went undefeated in conference play. They played 11 Power 4 opponents to Alabama’s nine. And SMU’s only losses came by single digits to 10-win teams, not to 6-6 teams like Alabama’s, which lost to Vanderbilt and got dominated by Oklahoma.

“It would be criminal if we’re not in,” Lashlee said. “It would be wrong on so many levels, not just to our team, but to what college football stands for. … We just played a playoff game, basically, out there and played pretty dang good. That was a pretty good game. I think for the last three quarters, everybody saw what they’ve seen all year.”

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said it himself in the postgame interview with ESPN: “That’s a Playoff football team. SMU, they better be in the dang playoffs.” Sure, it’s some friendly ACC lobbying, but it doesn’t mean Swinney is wrong. Despite its poor start Saturday, SMU showed the championship grit to pull itself out of a 17-point deficit and tie the game in the final minute.

That, and the Ponies’ complete body of work, should add up to a shot in the 12-team field.

It’s Boise State vs. Clemson vs. Arizona State for two byes

Clemson won the ACC championship to effectively lock up a Playoff spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Four of those five earn first-round byes as the top seeds.

Big Ten champion Oregon will be No. 1. SEC champion Georgia will be No. 2. The order of the next three champions should be an interesting debate for the selection committee Saturday night, into Sunday morning.

No. 10 Boise State (12-1) would seem to be a lock for a bye, just because Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos have been in that position for weeks.

No. 15 Arizona State (11-2) won the Big 12 in emphatic fashion over No. 16 Iowa State and brings a six-game winning streak into the Playoff.

Then there is No. 17 Clemson (10-3), which needed a Syracuse upset victory against Miami last week to get into the ACC title game for the 10th time (Swinney is now 9-1 in the game). The Tigers have the worst record of the three, but two of their losses came to Georgia in the season-opener and South Carolina by three in the regular-season finale. And neither Boise State nor Arizona State beat a better opponent in their conference title game than Clemson winning over No. 8 SMU.

Clemson's improbable ACC championship sets up Playoff berth: 'Anything can happen'

What a Playoff bid means for Clemson

The Tigers proved that you don’t always have to look like a Playoff team to be a Playoff team in the expanded format.

Clemson will become the first three-loss team to make the field, despite a blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1, a double-digit defeat against Louisville in early November and last week’s loss to South Carolina. Because only one of those losses came in conference play, the Tigers earned their spot in the ACC championship, then made the most of it by jumping out to an early lead and, somehow, hanging on.

These Tigers aren’t elite, as they were during their Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence title runs. Quarterback Cade Klubnik is good, but a notch below them, and his supporting cast is flawed. But the 12-team format allows for mulligans. Clemson took advantage of them Saturday and is headed to the Playoff for the seventh time. Swinney’s ninth ACC championship was relatively unexpected this year. Anything extra — like a Playoff win or two — seems like a bonus.

Big Ten: Oregon 45, Penn State 37

The No. 1 Ducks (13-0) continued their unbeaten run in a track meet against the No. 3 Nittany Lions (11-2). Penn State had 518 yards to Oregon’s 466, but mistakes proved costly, including an interception thrown by Drew Allar on the Lions’ final possession. Oregon receiver Tez Johnson starred with 11 catches for 181 yards.

Ducks are Rose Bowl-bound

As the Big Ten champion, it’s only fitting Oregon is headed to the Rose Bowl.

The Ducks, as the nation’s only unbeaten team, wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the first 12-team College Football Playoff, earning a first-round bye and a quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 against the winner of the 8 vs. 9 game.

The Ducks have played in six Rose Bowls as the Pac-12 champion, including a CFP semifinal against Florida State in 2014 on their way to a national title game, which they lost to Ohio State. Now, they will be repping the Big Ten in their first season as a member against an opponent to be determined. We know it won’t be from the Pac-12. Could it be Ohio State or Penn State again from the Big Ten?

Has Oregon been an under-the-radar at No. 1?

Oregon goes unbeaten (with swagger) in its first Big Ten season. And the Ducks aren't finished

Oregon is one of the most recognizable and well-wardrobed brands in college football, with a known quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. So why do these Ducks feel like the quietest No. 1 team in a long time? Despite ample talent and success, Oregon has not commanded the level of attention or conversation that other top teams have this season. Some of that is a product of the schedule: The home win over Ohio State was a big moment, but the win over Boise State was way back on Sept. 7, and there haven’t been many other marquee matchups. Maybe there’s some time-zone bias at play as well.

Whatever the reason, Oregon showed why it deserves the top seed with the win over Penn State. The Ducks rang up those 45 points and 466 total yards, including 283 passing and four touchdowns by Gabriel. The offense can beat opponents running or passing. And granted, a top-15 defense didn’t always look the part Saturday, allowing those 518 yards, but it created two massive interceptions — one that led to an immediate touchdown, one that iced the game.

Everyone’s watching now, and Oregon looks primed to be a force in the 12-team Playoff as it seeks to become the first first-time national champion since Florida in 1996.

A home game in Happy Valley?

It was looking rough early for the Nittany Lions, who were down 14-3 and 28-10 in the first half. But they showed lots of fight — mostly on offense — and finished respectably, even as their big-game misery continued. Penn State is now 3-19 against AP top-10 teams and 1-14 against top-five teams under James Franklin.

A drop from No. 3 in the rankings is likely, so getting the No. 5 seed and hosting the No. 12 seed in the first round may be out. But it probably would have required a humiliation, if anything, to knock Penn State from hosting in the first round. Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee aren’t all moving past Franklin’s team.

The Vols, Indiana, Clemson, SMU and Alabama are all potential visitors who can enjoy a December “White Out” in Beaver Stadium. — Rexrode

How seriously should we take Penn State after hanging with Oregon in Big Ten title match?

SEC: Georgia 22, Texas 19 (OT)

A week after outlasting Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, No. 5 Georgia (11-2) merely needed one overtime to win the SEC championship against No. 2 Texas (11-2). The Bulldogs were outgained 389 yards to 277 and had to turn to backup quarterback Gunner Stockton in the second half after an injury to Carson Beck, but Trevor Etienne’s touchdown run pushed them over the top for their second SEC title in the past three seasons.

Georgia is a safe bet for the No. 2 seed

Georgia’s SEC championship puts an end to any possible discussion about its Playoff-worthiness with an injured starting quarterback.

The pre-outrage was already percolating online when Beck did not play nearly the entire second half because of what appeared to be an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Yes, the committee left Florida State out last year because it lost Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury, but it should be noted: The Seminoles would have been ranked high enough to make a 12-team field.

Though he returned to the field for a handoff on the final play of the game after Stockton’s helmet was knocked off, an injured Beck certainty clouds Georgia’s Playoff prospects. But the Bulldogs will get an extra week of rest with a first-round bye and are almost certainly locked into the No. 2 seed now. They’ll start their pursuit of the third national title in four seasons at the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

How far will Texas fall?

Texas will probably drop a few spots from No. 2 in the rankings but stay high enough to host a first-round game.

Indiana, Alabama and Tennessee are the teams most likely to travel to Austin. But is it possible the committee gives the Longhorns a stringent reassessment in light of losing a lead to a backup quarterback in the second half Saturday? Remember, Miami plunged six spots last week after losing at Syracuse. Texas does not have a win over a ranked team and lost twice to the one it played this season. The safe guess is a drop to Georgia’s spot at No. 5 in the rankings, making it the No. 7 seed for a possible visit from Indiana in a 7-10 game.

What does the win say about Georgia’s national title hopes?

What a resilient, gritty win by Georgia. Quarterback dramatics aside, Georgia won with a stubborn rushing attack (37 attempts, 141 yards) and a swarming defense reminiscent of its October win over the Longhorns in Austin, with the Dawgs registering six sacks and three turnovers on Saturday.

There are still substantial questions facing the Dawgs in the 12-team bracket. How serious is Beck’s injury? And regardless of his availability, what does Saturday’s performance tell us about the Dawgs as a national title contender? The defense, when it plays to its full potential, is clearly championship-worthy. But Beck struggled before he went out, and Georgia finished the game 20 for 30 through the air for only 136 passing yards and zero touchdowns.

The SEC crown was hard-earned, but the Bulldogs and head coach Kirby Smart will have to fine-tune that passing attack to have any chance of hoisting another national championship trophy.

A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia's rescue — not detriment

What another loss to Georgia says about Texas

The Longhorns’ winning formula is simple: If they can run the ball, they can win. If they can’t, it’s doomsday for them. Their only two losses were the only two games in which they couldn’t crack 100 yards on the ground, both against Georgia. Texas rushed for 29 yards in the Oct. 19 loss and for 31 yards on Saturday. The other games Texas had to scratch and claw to win — 27-24 at Vanderbilt and 20-10 at Arkansas — were their next two lowest rush outputs: 104 yards and 139, respectively.

Texas has a championship-level defense and a feast-or-famine passing game led by quarterback Quinn Ewers that typically makes enough big plays. But Georgia showed how to shut the Longhorns down: Stifle the running game.

Why Georgia is not like FSU last year

For the second year in a row, the Playoff selection committee has to consider the health of a starting quarterback as it sets the field. But here’s why the circumstances surrounding Beck’s injury are different from the injury to Florida State’s Jordan Travis last year.

How will the Playoff handle Georgia QB Carson Beck's injury? Why it's not like FSU

Big 12: Arizona State 45, Iowa State 19

The No. 15 Sun Devils (11-2) dominated the No. 16 Cyclones (10-3) to win the Big 12 title and secure a Playoff bid. The score was tied at 10 early in the second quarter before Arizona State scored the game’s next 35 points to turn it into a rout.

Arizona State’s shocking ascent

What a remarkable turnaround for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, who went from 3-9 in 2023 and being picked last in the Big 12 preseason media poll to a conference championship in their first year in the league. This is Arizona State’s first conference championship since it shared the Pac-10 title in 2007.

Regardless of where Arizona State is seeded, it’s been a stellar season for a program that had to bounce back from the dreadful, NCAA infraction-riddled tenure of former head coach Herm Edwards. The Sun Devils secured their fifth 11-win season in program history on Saturday and first since 1996, with a chance to match and surpass the 12-win single-season record set in 1975. — Williams

Unthinkable? A storybook season keeps getting better for surprise Big 12 champ Arizona State

Can the Sun Devils get a first-round bye?

The Sun Devils came into the weekend ranked No. 15 by the selection committee. The Big 12 has been chasing No. 10 Boise State for a few weeks, much to the chagrin of commissioner Brett Yormark.

“Where I sit, there should be no comparison between us and a Group of 5 champion,” he said before Saturday’s game.

The Broncos won the Mountain West on Friday, so it would take a dramatic change of heart from the committee to elevate ASU past Boise State. The conversation could change with No. 17 Clemson’s win over No. 8 SMU in the ACC title game. That could make room for Arizona State and Boise State to be top-four seeds.

One other thing to consider: If Arizona State can’t get a first-round bye, could the committee reward the Sun Devils’ six-game winning streak with something better than the 12th and final seed, bumping them ahead of Alabama, which currently holds the last at-large spot? — Russo

Will Cam Skattebo be a Heisman finalist?

Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty are the clear-cut frontrunners in the Heisman Trophy race, but Skattebo bullied his way into the conversation.

Skattebo destroyed Iowa State. Four Cyclone defenders bounced off of him during a 47-yard second-quarter run before a fifth eventually brought him down. Four plays later, he strolled in from 3 yards out to give ASU a 17-10 lead, and the Sun Devils never looked back.

Skattebo scored twice more and finished with 208 yards from scrimmage, putting him second in the FBS with 2,074 for the season, trailing only Jeanty (2,613). It’s the eighth time Skattebo has gone over 150 scrimmage yards in a game this season.

Beyond the two frontrunners, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who has made a stronger case to be in New York City. — Khan

Is Arizona State a sleeper to make a run?

Maybe even more than surprise story of the year Indiana, Arizona State looks interesting in the Playoff given its offensive weaponry. That offense could find sledding tougher in cold conditions on the road in the first round — at Penn State or at Notre Dame, for example. If ASU gets a bye to a bowl quarterfinal, the fast track should help.

Either way, Skattebo is one of the top weapons in the Playoff, quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing at a high level and provides a run threat, and ASU was fine against Iowa State without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who’s out for the season. — Rexrode

Iowa State is out of the Playoff race. What’s next?

The loss ended the Cyclones’ Playoff hopes and another goal that was talked about within the program: winning a conference championship for the first time since 1912. That there’s any disappointment around Iowa State is a testament to Matt Campbell, already the winningest coach in program history. He has led a perennial Big 12 also-ran to two conference title games — Iowa State lost to Oklahoma in 2020 — and a program-record 10 victories this season. If the Cyclones win their bowl game (the Pop-Tarts Bowl is one possibility), they’ll likely finish ranked for the fourth time ever.

National and regional comments by By Ralph D. Russo, Matt Baker, Justin Williams, Joe Rexrode and Sam Khan of The Athletic and New York Times.

The 2024-25 College Football Playoff marks the 11th year of the CFP era — and the first year that the CFP is using a 12-team format.

Games are scheduled Dec. 20, 2024 to Jan. 20, 2025, with the first round on Dec. 20-21, quarterfinals on Dec. 31-Jan. 1, semifinals on Jan. 9-10 and finally the CFP National Championship Game on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025 in Atlanta. Check out the full schedule below.

2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites

All times Eastern

• First round (Dec. 20-21)

  • Friday, Dec. 20: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN

  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 12 p.m. | TNT

  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 4 p.m. | TNT

  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN

• Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)

  • Fiesta Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN

  • Peach Bowl: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN

  • Rose Bowl: 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN

  • Sugar Bowl: 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN

• Semifinals (Jan. 9-10)

  • Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN

  • Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN

• CFP National Championship

  • 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN

  • Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia