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2023 ACC win totals, odds, picks: Clemson, Florida State aim high while facing large numbers By Chip Patterson Jun 22, 2023 at 2:43 pm The 2023 season is the beginning of a new era for ACC football, and changes to the league schedule format have already impacted the oddsmakers' win total projections. The Atlantic and Coastal divisions, first created in 2005, have been retired in favor of a new 3-5-5 model that gives three permanent partners to each school and a rotation through the other 10 conference opponents across a two-year span. Now, former Atlantic Division schools that were frequently squeezed out by the one-two punch of Clemson and Florida State get a few more games against teams that were previously in the parity-powered a Coastal Division that produced seven different champs in a seven-year run from 2013-19. On the flip side, some of those former Coastal Division teams will have more dates against the likes of Clemson and Florida State, making win projections a little less favorable. As we stand on the edge of a new era in ACC football, let's break down those Caesars Sportsbook win total projections with predictions for every game on the schedule. Boston College Over/under 5.5 wins Wins: Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, Virginia, UConn, Virginia Tech Losses: Florida State, at Louisville, at Army, at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse, at Pitt, Miami Even mild luck will lead to an improvement from last year's 3-9 record, which was impacted by injury issues at quarterback and along an offensive line that used a different combination of starters in each of the first nine games. Getting back to bowl eligibility hinges on a couple of tricky October road trips to Army and Georgia Tech. Army seems the most likely place to get a win since Boston College has taken six of its last seven meetings in the series. Fatigue may be a factor, though, as the Black Knights will come in off a bye while the Eagles will face their seventh game in as many weeks. Pick: Under 5.5 (-115) Clemson Over/under 10.0 wins Wins: at Duke, Charleston Southern, FAU, Florida State, at Syracuse, Wake Forest, at Miami, at NC State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, at South Carolina Losses: Notre Dame To pull back the curtain a little bit, placing Notre Dame as a loss is my acknowledgement that predicting any team to 12-0 is a fool's errand. In other words, I do not see a clear-cut loss on a schedule that is extremely favorable in terms of the home-road draw. Death Valley is one of the best home-field advantages in college football and the Tigers get their three toughest opponents (Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina) at home. I think the Fighting Irish are a comparable team to Clemson so we've slid that marker over to the loss column, but this is still an easy over play for me. Pick: Over 10 (+105) Duke Over/under 6.0 wins Wins: Lafayette, Northwestern, at UConn, NC State, at Virginia, Pitt Losses: Clemson, Notre Dame, at Florida State, at Louisville, Wake Forest, at North Carolina The final year of Coastal play coincided with tough transitions at Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils pounced on the opportunity by winning nine games. Mike Elko was named ACC Coach of the Year and Riley Leonard emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. The quality is consistent year-over-year, but the schedule will be much more difficult with Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and NC State all added to the mix. I have the Blue Devils bowling again, but it'll take a strong finish in November to get there. Pick: Push Florida State Over/under 9.5 wins Wins: Southern Miss, at Boston College, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, at Wake Forest, at Pitt, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida Losses: LSU, at Clemson It's been a half-decade or so since we've seen Florida State enter the season with expectations of competing for an ACC title and nearly a full decade since the Seminoles' last conference crown. But the post-division setup allows Florida State room to drop a regular-season game to Clemson and remain in the conference title hunt, which is exactly what I'm expecting with a projected 7-1 ACC record. The Seminoles will be favored by at least a touchdown in every other conference game, and with the depth that Mike Norvell has built I think this team is prepared to seriously contend for a conference title. Pick: Over 9.5 (-145) Georgia Tech Over/under 4.5 wins Wins: SC State, Bowling Green, Boston College Losses: Louisville, at Ole Miss, at Wake Forest, at Miami, North Carolina, at Virginia, at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia The job Brent Key did rallying the Yellow Jackets after Geoff Collins' midseason dismissal not only landed him the full-time head coaching position but offered some encouragement for his ability to lead the program into the future. After major roster turnover, however, Key faces a daunting schedule. Of the losses I've projected here I could see Virginia result going the other way, but that's a tricky spot sandwiched between North Carolina and Clemson. The really bad news for Georgia Tech is flipping that to a win still lands Georgia Tech under Las Vegas' total. Pick: Under 4.5 (-135) Louisville Over/under 8.0 wins Wins: Georgia Tech, Murray State, indiana, Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky Losses: at NC State, Notre Dame, at Pitt A homecoming hire, a massive transfer portal class and a favorable schedule have Jeff Brohm set up for a memorable Year 1. Early games against Murray State and Indiana should allow the new offense to find its rhythm, and the Cardinals should be favored against their first two conference foes (Georgia Tech, Boston College). The midseason stretch will be difficult and I'm projecting Louisville will lose three tough games in a row before hitting its bye and returning with a manageable home stretch. With no Clemson, no Florida State and no North Carolina on the schedule, it's easy to see how Jeff Brohm will be able to stack up ACC wins in his first year in the conference. Pick: Over 8.0 (+100) Miami Over/under 7.5 wins Wins: Miami (OH), Bethune-Cookman, at Temple, Georgia Tech, Virginia, at NC State, at Boston College Losses: Texas A&M, at North Carolina, Clemson, at Florida State, Louisville The Hurricanes defense is littered with multiple future NFL Draft picks and Tyler Van Dyke returns at quarterback after winning ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021. But right now the competitive depth isn't there to contend with Clemson and Florida State in the top tier of the conference. Ultimately, if Miami beats the teams it should beat, that will show the kind of consistency that was missing in Year 1 under Cristobal. Falling short to the likes of Clemson or Florida State (or even North Carolina) won't be as troubling as long as the Canes are taking care of business when they are supposed to. Pick: Under 7.5 (-140) North Carolina Over/under 8.5 wins Wins: South Carolina, Appalachian State, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, at Georgia Tech, Campbell, Duke Losses: Minnesota, at Pitt, at Clemson, at NC State I've handed out a couple hard-fought wins, assigned some sensible losses and still wound up just under the oddsmakers win total with an 8-4 projection. But the issue with North Carolina, historically, is that it's safer to predict eight or nine wins than it is to predict where those wins come from. The Tar Heels could absolutely beat Minnesota, Pitt or NC State -- games I have as losses -- but also lose to the likes of South Carolina, Appalachian State, Syracuse, Miami or Duke. The combination of an elite quarterback in Drake Maye and a defense that has yet to turn the corner leaves North Carolina with the largest gap between its ceiling and floor. They could win 10 or barely make a bowl at 6-6, so splitting the difference at 8-4 feels right. Pick: Under 8.5 (-140) NC State Over/under 7 wins Wins: at UConn, VMI, at Virginia, Louisville, Marshall, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina Losses: Notre Dame, at Duke, Clemson, Miami, at Wake Forest The Wolfpack must replace a ton of production, but the player development under Dave Doeren and a favorable schedule draw open the door for very little drop-off -- even in a rebuilding year. In addition to NC State's three permanent partners North Carolina, Duke and Clemson, the Wolfpack draw Miami, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest in conference play. The favorable slate looks even better when you consider two of the three toughest opponents -- Louisville and Miami -- come to Carter-Finley. The other, Wake Forest, is an in-state rival. That means every game from Sept. 9 until the end of the season is played within a 3.5-hour drive of Raleigh. Pick: Push Pitt Over/under 7 wins Wins: Wofford, Cincinnati, at West Virginia, North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Louisville, at Wake Forest, Boston College Losses: at Notre Dame, Florida State, Syracuse, at Duke With turnover at quarterback, the loss of a star running back, multiple key defensive players off to the NFL Draft and three Power Five opponents on the nonconference slate, I was ready to predict an under for Pitt, but seven wins is too low. Even with the losses, Pitt should be solid along the offensive line and experienced on defense. That means the Panthers will likely be favored in two of those three nonconference showdowns. Throw in an ACC draw that lacks Clemson, Miami and NC State, and there's a path to an 8-4 season for Pat Narduzzi's group. Pick: Over 7 (-115) Syracuse Over/under 6.5 wins Wins: Colgate, Western Michigan, Army, Boston College, Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest Losses: at Purdue, Clemson, at North Carolina, at Florida State, at Virginia Tech Though the loss of offensive coordinator Robert Anae and star running back Sean Tucker is notable, the return of quarterback Garrett Shrader and all-conference tight end Oronde Gadsden helps. Throw in an internal promotion for Jason Beck to take over as OC and I'm feeling good that last year's hot start was not a fluke. The 2023 schedule presents some real challenges with Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, plus a road trip to Purdue among the first seven games. But if the team can stay healthy there are several winnable contests on the back half of the schedule that put us at 7-5. Pick: Over 6.5 (+120) Virginia Over/under 3.5 wins Wins: James Madison, William & Mary, Georgia Tech Losses: Tennessee, at Maryland, NC State, at Boston College, at North Carolina, at Miami, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech The good for Virginia is the conference schedule is favorable. There's no Clemson or Florida State, and games against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will be at home. But the nonconference slate is doing the Wahoos' bowl game hopes absolutely no favors. Virginia will be heavy underdogs against Tennessee in Nashville and Maryland in College Park. There are also tough in-state showdowns against one of the best Sun Belt teams in James Madison and a William & Mary squad coming off a trip to the FCS quarterfinals. Pick: Under 3.5 (-120) Virginia Tech Over/under 5.5 wins Wins: ODU, at Rutgers, at Marshall, Syracuse, at Virginia Losses: Purdue, Pitt, at Florida State, Wake Forest, at Louisville, at Boston College, NC State The Hokies' season will be defined by a pivotal five-game closing stretch. Virginia Tech finishes the year with Syracuse and NC State at home and road dates against Louisville, Boston College and Virginia. Our projections call for 2-3 in that run with a 5-7 finish, but flipping one of those losses is certainly within the range of possible outcomes. This is a roster that underwent a major overhaul from the end of the Justin Fuente era in 2021 to now, including 36 newcomers in 2023. There's a solid trajectory for the future under Brent Pry, but it's uncertain if the Hokies have the competitive depth needed to win those late season coin-flip games right now. Pick: Under 5.5 (-140) Wake Forest Over/under 6.5 wins Wins: Elon, Vanderbilt, at ODU, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, at Duke, NC State Losses: at Clemson, Pitt, Florida State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse The computers can never get Wake Forest right. Predictive models don't factor in the college football incubator Dave Clawson has constructed in Winston-Salem. A lack of returning starters is not a red flag for a program that has reached a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons because the Demon Deacons have demonstrated the ability to develop in a way that maintains the program standard. Unfortunately, the schedule does Wake Forest no favors. The rotation still has them stuck with former Atlantic Division foes Clemson and Notre Dame. It's easy to see why this year's group might be closer to .500 than ACC title contention. Pick: Over 6.5 (+120)