Ranking New Mexico State football's home schedule

LAS CRUCES – After five years as an independent football program, New Mexico State football joins an FBS conference this year in Conference USA.
As a result, there is only one guaranteed road game (at Auburn) and the Aggies get to play six games at Aggie Memorial Stadium, starting with a Week 0 game on ESPN against Massachusetts on Aug. 26.
With excitement and expectations increasing in head coach Jerry Kill's second season, the Aggies look to return to a bowl game for the second straight season — the team has a realistic chance to do so with two winnable home games to start the season.
Here is a quick look at all six Aggies home games in 2023, listed from easiest to hardest.
Western Illinois, 7 p.m. on Sept. 2, on ESPN+
You really couldn't ask for a better chance at a 2-0 start to the season. If the Aggies open the season with a home win against UMass in Week 0 — a team the Aggies beat on the road last year — they should handle FCS Western Illinois in Week 1.
Western Illinois was 0-11 last season and 0-8 in the Missouri Valley. Western Illinois scored a league-low 150 points and allowed a league-high 426 points (39 ppg). Western Illinois lost 13 consecutive games after finishing the 2021 season 2-9.
Jacksonville State, 2 p.m. on Nov. 25, on TBA
Jacksonville State and Sam Houston will be competitive football additions to Conference USA and it could be sooner rather than later.
However, upon entering the season, Jacksonville State will likely be picked toward the bottom of the league despite finishing last year 9-2 overall, 5-0 in the Atlantic Sun.
Jacksonville State rushed for 251 yards per game last year and scored 36.2 points per game. They return their top two rushers including quarterback Zion Webb, along with four starters on the offensive line. With that experience and scheme, along with head coach Rich Rodriguez, Jacksonville State could surprise the league in Year 1.
I give this game to the Aggies, who will have more depth than a team moving to the FCS level. The Aggies will need to win on the final week at home to potentially secure bowl eligibility.
Massachusetts, 5 p.m. on Aug. 26, on ESPN
Is there such a thing as a must-win game in Week 0?
Before I get into what should be Don Brown's best team at UMass, this is a massive game to open Jerry Kill's second season at NM State.
The game is on ESPN and the Aggies' first game after an unlikely run to a bowl game appearance last year — a victory over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. The Aggies should be better overall than they were a year ago and there should be a good crowd as ticket sales and team interest has ticked up following last year.
The Aggies also beat UMass 23-13 on the road last year, snapping a 21-game road losing streak; however, they needed a Diego Pavia-led second-half comeback to do so.
It turned out to be the coming out party for Pavia, who was the Aggies best offensive player for the remainder of the season. The team returns nine starters offensively, which is why I believe the Aggies will open the season with a victory.
Not only that, but UMass has lost 24 straight road games and is 2-22 the past two seasons.
Don Brown is a good defensive coach, and UMass will be good on that side of the ball again with eight returning starters. They weren't good on offense, averaging 13 points per game — last in FBS. UMass will have a new quarterback this season after adding Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh and Carlos Davis from Western Carolina to try to jump-start the offense.
Sam Houston, 7 p.m. on Oct. 11, on CBS Sports Network
Sam Houston won the FCS national championship in 2021 and has been gearing up for its move to FBS.
Sam Houston went 5-4 last year and 3-2 in the WAC, but they redshirted several key players after four games to prepare for CUSA. Sam Houston has transfers up and down the roster including Utah State running back John Gentry, UNM defensive lineman Jaden Phillips and Louisiana Monroe defensive back Jabari Johnson.
Sam Houston is also looking for a quarterback. Returner Keegan Shoemaker played last year, but Sam Houston scored just 18 points per game. The team added North Texas transfer Grant Gunnell and Washington State transfer Xavier Ward at the position. Defensively, Sam Houston has nine starters back including four of their top five tacklers.
The Aggies host Sam Houston and FIU on back-to-back Wednesdays during the CUSA's new scheduling model. They are both tough games that I think the Aggies will split but anything is possible.
Florida International, 7 p.m. on Oct. 4, on CBS Sports Network
This game goes from what I and everyone else assumed would be an easy win at home for the Aggies last year to what I think will be a 50/50 game based on last year's result.
The Aggies lost 21-7 at home last year as 14.5-point favorites to drop to 1-5. What I learned about FIU was that the game was very winnable but FIU has athletes that will give them a chance to compete every week.
FIU's victory over NMSU was the school's first victory over a FBS team in three years and the Panthers finished 4-8 in Mike Macintyre's first season. FIU is still building; quarterback Grayson James hurt NMSU in the first half with a read-option that the Aggies shut down in the second half, but the Aggies were also shut out.
Obviously, the Aggies offense turned around later in the season, so I believe the Aggies will be more effective against the Panthers, but I will be more cautious about the point spread for this game.
Middle Tennessee, 4 p.m. on Nov. 4, on TBA
Middle Tennessee will likely be picked in the top half of the conference after an 8-5 season last year and a bowl game victory over San Diego State.
MTU lost a top-tier quarterback and their top three receivers from a team that scored 29 points per game. Returner Nicholas Vattiato replaced Chase Cunningham due to injury as a freshman and finished with 293 yards.
The Middle Tennessee defense returns eight starters from a defense that allowed 28 points per game and a CUSA-low 117 rush yards per game. MTU allowed the most passing yards per game in the league at 293 yards per game despite a league-best 36 sacks.
Middle Tennessee has some questions to answer but will be the best team to visit Aggie Memorial Stadium this season.