NFL Draft News

He didn't know it, but Sir Isaac Newton posed a theory that suitably describes the 2023 NFL Draft. Although quarterbacks have been the biggest focus of attention, as always, the upcoming lottery is laden with players with prospects with the ability to wreck a passing attack.

Yep, it is the stuff of Newton's third law: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. We’re pretty sure Newton didn't have Xs and Os in mind when formulating that theory in1686, nearly three centuries before the first NFL draft. But we'll take it.

Call it the “Theory of the 2023 NFL Draftalytics.”

While at least nine quarterback-needy NFL teams focus on four or five key signal callers, the draft offers the most concentration of talent at positions intent on spoiling the passing game -- cornerbacks and edge rushers.

We’ll revisit the QB quandary later. Meantime, let’s look at the reactive side of Newton's physics equation.

At cornerback, there are five or six prospects who could be snatched in the first round: Devon Witherspoon (Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State) and DJ Turner (Michigan). Up to ten corners are worthy being taken in the first two rounds.

At defensive end and outside linebacker, anywhere from seven to nine players could be off the board at the end of the first round. Perhaps as many as 17 could go in the first two rounds.

Tops among these edge rushers is Will Anderson (Alabama), who could be first non-quarterback drafted, regardless of whether you call him a defensive end or linebacker. Defensive ends who will follow him are Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Myles Murphy (Clemson) and Lukas Van Ness (Iowa). Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame) and Will McDonald IV (Iowa State) will also get a look in the first couple of rounds. And we won’t mention Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore aloud because, honestly, we haven’t learned pronounce his name — yet.

Then there are those uber-athletic outside linebackers — Nolan Smith (Georgia) and Trenton Simpson (Clemson) — who barely left footprints when they both ran the 40 at the Indy Combine in 4.39 seconds. Add Arkansas LB Drew Sanders, and we have as many as 17 collegiate sack-masters who could be drafted in before Round 3. '

By our less-than-Newtonian math skills, that’s up to 27 pass-defense demons good enough to be rated among the top 64 players. So good luck to those guys scrambling to be among the top quarterbacks. And we do mean scrambling.

Oh, yeah, the quarterbacks. Our ratings at NFLDrafScout.com changed since midseason. C. J. Stroud (Ohio State) displaced Bryce Young (Alabama) as the No. 1 prospect. And we probably set a draft media record for 2023 by writing nearly 420 words before mentioning their names.

We were mesmerized by Young, who was a wizard with the ball for the Tide. But when he measured 5-10 1/8th tall, or short, at the Indy Combine, we admit to stepping back a bit. His 204 pounds is also suspect, up from 194 during the season. Perhaps some of the extra poundage was water weight added at Indy from not having worked out. He didn’t weigh in at his Pro Day, but looked lighter. We told you he is smart.

Our choice at No. 1 is Stroud, not only because we have concerns about Young's size, but because we have no concerns about Stroud—except the nagging thought that he was helped out immensely by Ohio State’s first-round talent at wide receiver. Hey, he still had to throw them the ball, right?

Years from now the Stroud-Young discussion may be academic because they both have the tools to succeed. One thing to consider is that the physical environs of the team that drafts them could play a factor in just how well each does perform.

Stroud may fit better in the Carolina Panthers outdoor stadium, and Young might be helped by the Houston Texans' indoor NRG Arena.

Two other quarterbacks are expected to be drafted in the top ten — Florida’s ridiculously athletic Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's bulked-up flame-thrower, Will Levis.

Richardson was other-worldly at the combine, with record jumps of 40.5 inches in the vertical and 10-feet five inches in the broad. At 6-4, 244 pounds, he ran 40 yards in 4.43 seconds and flicked the ball 60 yards with ease. That's the kind of stuff that might have made Richardson a priority of Al Davis, the Raiders late owner, despite his misadventure with JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in 2007 who retired in 2010 after three unproductive seasons in Oakland.

Davis still loved those measurables. Lest we forget, his last pick was Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor. That was in the 2011 Supplemental Draft, a few months before Mr. Davis left us. With so many analysts comparing Richardson to Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson, it's odd that nobody mentions Pryor.

Once the nation's top prep basketball and football recruit, Pryor was 6-4 1/2, 240 pounds when he ran 40 yards in 4.38 for scouts and that was not as good as the 4.33 he clocked in an earlier, well-attended match race. His speed was validated with a 93-yard touchdown run against the Pittsburgh Steelers, still an NFL record for quarterbacks. But Pryor was a better athlete than he was a quarterback and eventually gained 1,000 yards in his first season as a receiver after switching positions too late in his career.

If a team gambles on drafting Richardson early, maybe Pryor's path could be a fallback concept if former Gator doesn’t learn the intricacies at quarterback. With only 13 college games, Richardson has a long way to go. Catching a pass is more natural than throwing one, at least at the NFL level.

Levis is slightly more advanced than Richardson, but also needs to refine his skills. He can throw the ball through a brick wall but needs to acquire the finesse and touch to loft it over the wall — or defenders — in a way that is catchable for his receivers. Don't let his self-confident, braggadocios manner fool you. He is a solid citizen who has the physical goods to be a franchise player but needs to be less enamored with his brawn, and those tank tops, and more engaged with his brain, some finesse and maybe a shirt with sleeves.

Teams are also intrigued by Tennessee's 6-3, 217-pound quarterback, Hendon Hooker, who has a howitzer for an arm and threw 58 touchdowns with only five interceptions the last two years. He destroyed Alabama's defense with his arm and legs. However, he is coming off an ACL tear and will be 25 years old as a rookie. But he's the fifth-rated quarterback on our list and there are up to nine teams anxious to get one. So don't expect him to last long.

We strongly believe it would be smart to take Hooker in the first round because that means he makes a five-year commitment. His first year is a loss as he recovers from November ACL surgery and spends time learning the offense. If he is ready to start in year two, that gives the team four years to have him on a rookie salary before deciding whether to keep him.

2023 NFL Draftalytics: Action (Quarterbacks), Reaction (Pass defense), Rankings by Position

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