CFP: Three-loss Tide rises to No. 11

As anticipated, any CFP polling Tuesday that showed three-loss Alabama making it into the top 12 would inevitably rankle other ranked contenders for the College Football Playoff.

Sure enough, acrimony and frustration surfaced when it was learned that Alabama came in at No. 11.

“Really??” began the pointed Twitter response from Miami AD Dan Radakovich, whose Hurricanes nabbed the No. 12 position. Though his tweet didn’t specifically call out the strength-of-schedule argument, everyone knew the tiresome concept would be trotted out to justify escorting the Tide into the postseason. (And it was.)

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Also implicit in Radakovich’s tweet is the knowledge of what his school’s No. 12 ranking means: Granting the Hurricanes’ that final spot is pointless — at least in terms of the new College Football Playoff format. And that’s because the format, coupled with the results of this upcoming weekend’s slate of games, will make sure Miami is on the outside looking in.

Before we get to that, let’s look at today’s poll results.

1. Oregon (12-0)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Penn State (11-1)

4. Notre Dame (11-1)

5. Georgia (10-2)

6. Ohio State (10-2)

7. Tennessee (10-2)

8. SMU (11-1)

9. Indiana (11-1)

10. Boise State (11-1)

11. Alabama (9-3)

12. Miami (10-2)

13. Ole Miss (9-3)

14. South Carolina (9-3)

15. Arizona State (10-2)

16. Iowa State (10-2)

17. Clemson (9-3)

18. BYU (10-2)

19. Missouri (9-3)

20. UNLV (10-2)

What has Radakovich and Miami so irritated?

When expanding the Playoff to 12 teams, the CFP stipulated that the the four highest-ranked conference champions automatically receive a bid and a first-round bye. The fifth highest-ranked conference champion earns an automatic bid, though it must play in the opening round.

Regardless of this upcoming Saturday’s results, the conference champions of the Big Ten and SEC — either Oregon or Penn State (Big Ten) and either Texas and Georgia (SEC) — will land a top-four seed. And title-game wins by No. 8 SMU (over Clemson) and 10th-ranked Boise State (vs. UNLV) mean that horsey teams grab two of the three remaining Playoff stalls.

But it’s that fifth conference winner, no matter how Miami fans try to crunch the numbers, that will bounce the ‘Canes from the tourney.

The winner of the Big 12 title game between No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State will leapfrog Miami. Even if both Boise State and SMU were to lose Saturday and fall below Miami, they would be replaced in the Playoff by the Big 12 winner, ACC champion Clemson and Mountain West winners UNLV (who beat Boise State).

Let’s go over our math in that scenario: three conference winners currently ranked below the Hurricanes would replace two teams currently in the top 12, thereby knocking Miami out. Yep, it checks out.

If it’s any consolation to Radakovich and the Hurricanes, Ole Miss and South Carolina (No. 13 and 14, respectively) are none too thrilled with the love shown Alabama either. There’s one more poll to take place after this weekend, but no one expects the Tide to recede in the rankings.

The two teams playing in conference championships this weekend that stand to experience the biggest ranking swings, depending on the outcomes of those title matchups, are No. 8 SMU (vs. Clemson) and No. 10 Boise State (vs. UNLV).

With wins, both the Mustangs and Broncos likely jump into the top four and secure a first-round pass. But losses preclude not only an automatic bid; they could drop these two teams completely out of the top 12. Losses by either also give the winner of the Arizona State-Iowa State Big 12 showdown the inside track to one of the top four conference champion seeds (and a bye).

Of course, there will be a shakeup of the current top five teams listed above by virtue of four of those schools playing amongst themselves.

In the Big Ten Conference Championship, unbeaten and top-ranked Oregon battles No. 3 Penn State (11-1) in Indianapolis. The Nittany Lions find themselves in this position they could not have foreseen a week ago. But then Michigan’s ownership of Ohio State was extended by another year, and the 13-10 upset knocked the Buckeyes out of the title game and a shot at a first-round bye. Ohio State is now No. 7, which should land them an opening-round game at home. But that could change if SMU and Boise State both win.

The SEC title game features two top quarterbacks as Quinn Ewers and No. 2 Texas face off against Carson Beck and the fifth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Atlanta. A loss would likely drop the Dawgs to the back half of the grouping of 12, meaning they would not only miss out on a bye but would likely have to play that first game on the road.

And no matter where No. 4 Notre Dame ends up ranked, it too will be playing that opening weekend. Part and parcel of the rule giving byes to conference champions means, quite logically, that an independent school can not qualify for the privilege.

We know. We know. Notre Dame can never catch a break.