Jones: If Jonathan Taylor gets his trade, other RBs will have blueprint to follow

As Josh Jacobs ended his standoff with the Las Vegas Raiders, the summer of running back concessions continued.
Jacobs, who last season led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards, on Saturday agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $12 million. That’s more than the $10.1 million he would have earned on the franchise tag he had refused to sign, but his quest for long-term security will have to wait until next offseason.
Now, Jonathan Taylor stands alone, as he fights with the Indianapolis Colts for a handsome contract extension or a trade that will give him a fresh start with another team and a highly coveted payday.
The outcome of Taylor’s situation could alter the course of multiple teams’ seasons. It also could have a ripple effect on the running back market next spring.
The clock is ticking for the 24-year-old Taylor, who in 2021 led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards before battling ankle injuries last season.
The Colts gave him permission to attempt to complete a trade by Tuesday, which is when all NFL team rosters must be cut to 53 players. Easier said than done, because to trigger a trade, a team would have to meet Indianapolis’ asking price (believed to be a first-round pick) as well as Taylor’s demands for a new contract. Opposing NFL talent evaluators and player representatives believe Taylor is looking for an annual salary of between $14 million and $15 million, which would make him one of the highest-paid players at his position. But such a move is not impossible, and as the NFL entered its final preseason weekend, it sounded as if things were heating up for Taylor.
The Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos are believed to rank among the teams with the greatest interest in Taylor, league sources familiar with the deliberations said. The league sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on behalf of Taylor or the teams with potential interest in him.
Should Taylor successfully orchestrate his exit from Indianapolis, it would be a win for running backs as a whole. It has been three years since Alvin Kamara (five years, $75 million) and Christian McCaffrey (four years, $64 million) got their big paydays. After years of NFL teams undervaluing their services, a positive outcome for Taylor would help nudge other leading backs toward a place of improved leverage in future negotiations.
Running backs certainly could use some positivity after an offseason that featured concessions rather than victories for Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Austin Ekeler, who all had to settle for franchise tags or salaries far below their desired values to play in 2023.
Last month, Ekeler led a Zoom meeting for running backs to discuss the devalued market for their position. But what can they collectively accomplish this season? Teams are operating in accordance with the collective bargaining agreement that players and owners approved in 2020 — a CBA that doesn’t expire until 2030. The running backs’ social media statements or news conferences will not sway owners. They are not going to fork over a larger piece of the pie to players at a position that carries a shorter shelf life and carries inferior prominence in modern game plans than do quarterbacks, left tackles, wide receivers, pass rushers and cornerbacks.
And just as Barkley found out with the New York Giants earlier this summer, there was very little Jacobs could do to strong-arm the Raiders into giving him a lucrative multiyear contract. Because the Raiders had designated him as their franchise player, they controlled his rights and maintained all of the leverage in negotiations.
Jacobs, who made $2.2 million last season, certainly could have refused to play this season rather than accept the tag. But it’s hard to forfeit $10 million-plus, and sitting out a season in the prime of one’s career also features several risks. It’s hard to make that money back. And there’s nothing to say that — given the short career life of running backs — Jacobs would ever manage to regain top form after a year away from the game (see Le’Veon Bell). Had Jacobs gotten injured while training on holdout from the team, he not only wouldn’t get paid this season, he could forget about a franchise tag or multiyear deal next year, too.
Taylor, however, has a few things going for him.
He’s a second-round pick, which means his contract doesn’t have a fifth-year option a team could use to retain him. Who would’ve ever thought being a first-round pick might one day be a liability?
Taylor also has greater leverage than Jacobs because he made his demand for a new contract as he entered the final year of his rookie deal. Waiting until after this season would give the Colts all the leverage. They likely would just slap Taylor with the franchise tag, just as the Raiders did with Jacobs.
While at odds with the Colts, Taylor didn’t play or practice this preseason. He has spent the last month on the physically unable to perform list because of the ankle surgery he had in January. But Taylor is healthy. He wouldn’t pursue a trade if he weren’t, because a clean physical is required to trigger the deal. And as the season draws closer, Taylor’s leverage appears to have strengthened.
Now, the Colts don’t have to trade him. They are well aware that if Taylor wants to accrue his fourth season and qualify for unrestricted free agency next offseason, he has to be active and available for at least six games in 2023.
But after multiple rounds of failed negotiations and the trade request by Taylor, the Colts appear willing to ship him elsewhere in exchange for a high draft pick or two rather than deal with a disgruntled player all season long.
That willingness reflects a shift in the Colts’ initial thinking. What once looked like a longshot now appears to be a strong possibility.
Some league execs and talent evaluators initially believed the Colts gave Taylor permission to pursue a trade just so he could see that his value around the league wasn’t as he believed. As trade rumblings have grown louder, however, others believe owner Jim Irsay does intend to ship Taylor elsewhere, pointing to the Colts’ track record of refusing to pay running backs. They traded Marshall Faulk rather than pay him, and they also let Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai leave via free agency. The same individuals predicted that a team that is close to contending would willingly part with a first-round pick and also pay Taylor, because “he’s a chip that could take a team over the top,” one NFC talent evaluator said.
Jonathan Taylor remains on the PUP list, per #Colts HC Shane Steichen. If he remains on the PUP list past the Tuesday roster cut deadline, he must miss the first four games of the season.
There’s also the whole trade request thing. https://t.co/TfrQuXesrP
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) August 26, 2023
That opinion, apparently, is shared by a number of teams, especially the Dolphins. Miami made the playoffs last season and is desperate to overtake Buffalo for AFC East supremacy. It sees a talented back like Taylor as capable of both easing pressure on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and taking the offense as a whole to another level.
Taylor landing with a contender and also getting paid would help revive the running back market. It would also serve notice to teams that it’s better to take care of their young backs as they enter their fourth year rather than run the risk of them essentially holding in (reporting, but refusing to play to protect themselves against the risk of injury with no long-term security) and/or demanding trades.
Trading a running back in his prime isn’t common.
Last season, the 49ers gave up four draft picks for McCaffrey. In doing so, they absorbed the three remaining seasons of his contract (an average of $16 million per season). But the 49ers were desperate for a playmaker with Deebo Samuel injured and a Super Bowl run within their reach.
McCaffrey did give San Francisco a boost, producing 10 touchdowns and 1,210 total yards. Had the 49ers not lost Brock Purdy to injury in the NFC Championship Game, they may have reached the Super Bowl.
Many believe Taylor could provide a similar impact for a talented roster and coach.
The Colts ultimately have to agree to a trade. But at this point, Taylor essentially has backed them into a corner: Ship him elsewhere for a pick that could serve as a future franchise cornerstone, or risk dealing with a distraction that could drag into the season — particularly if Taylor refuses to play until he absolutely has to in order to earn his accrued season. It’s a rare power move for the modern running back, but Taylor very well could use this card to his advantage.
If they’re smart, Taylor’s fellow running backs are taking notes.