Jeff Duncan: Can these Saints shock the NFL like in 2006, 2009 and 2017? We're about to find out

With the preseason finally concluded, it's time to learn the identity of the 2023 New Orleans Saints.
But while we will soon know who the Saints are, we won’t know what they will be until they open the regular season against the Tennessee Titans on Sept. 10.
So many questions remain.
Are these Saints as good as they think they are?
Are they poised to shock the league and make an unexpected leap to greatness the way the 2006, 2009 and 2017 teams did?
And if not, what does that say about the core of this team and the future of the club?
In many ways, these Saints are one of the league’s biggest mysteries.
Back-to-back mediocre seasons of 9-8 and 7-10 have relegated them to also-ran status in NFL circles. They're rarely mentioned as contenders for NFC supremacy, even in what is expected to be a watered-down year. But internally, a quiet confidence has been building throughout the offseason.
After the Saints’ 17-13 preseason loss to the Texans on Sunday, players and coaches openly expressed their unbridled excitement about the upcoming season.
“I’m looking forward to the regular season,” veteran tight end Jimmy Graham said. “It’s been an amazing training camp, and I can’t say enough about how good this team is at every position.”
Added veteran quarterback Jameis Winston: “We are going to do big things.”
The good news is the Saints enter Week 1 with a relatively healthy roster. Assuming cornerback Marshon Lattimore is OK and no one is injured in practice over the next two weeks, the Saints should open the regular season against the Titans at close to full strength.
The bad news is they will still be down one key starter (Alvin Kamara) and potentially two (Marcus Maye) because of suspensions for off-field transgressions.
It’s dangerous to try to determine strengths and weaknesses based on preseason games, where teams are often playing at half-strength and running vanilla schemes. But some prevailing themes have emerged about these Saints after 24 practices and three exhibition games.
Passing game is improved
Derek Carr has made a seamless transition to the new offense and has looked comfortable and confident in leading the attack. The expected development and emergence of Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed coupled with the return of a healthy Michael Thomas have bolstered the perimeter artillery. Look for the Saints to dramatically improve their average of 217.2 yards passing a game.
Pass defense remains elite
Nothing comes easy against this stingy secondary. The Saints held opposing quarterbacks to a 68.5 passer efficiency rating and 53.7 completion percentage during the preseason. The latter figure led the league and the former ranked second. The Saints ranked second in the league in pass defense a year ago, and the unit will again be the strength of the defense.
Kicking game looks solid
Whoever wins the kicking competition between Wil Lutz and Blake Grupe won’t have to do much to improve on last year’s performance. Lutz experienced an uncharacteristically subpar year, converting a career-low 74% of his field goal attempts. The seven-year veteran has responded to the competition Grupe has provided in camp and rebounded with a strong offseason. For a team that projects to play a lot of close games, having a reliable kicker is critical. The Saints have two good options here.
As positive as things have gone this training camp, some concerns remain:
Is the offensive line good enough?
Games are won and lost in the trenches, and the left side of the Saints’ front five is a question mark. The Saints are poised to open the season with Trevor Penning at left tackle and James Hurst at left guard. One’s talented but a work in progress. The other’s as steady as the day is long but a journeyman. If there’s something that keeps Dennis Allen up at night, it’s probably this spot, knowing that his starting quarterback’s blind side could be vulnerable.
How improved is the pass rush?
The Saints recorded 10 sacks and 15 quarterback hits in three preseason games. That’s excellent production, but the majority of those pressures were recorded by players who won’t be on the roster in a few days. Bryan Bresee and Malcolm Roach displayed good interior pressure against the Texans, a positive sign if it can carry over to the regular season.
Can they run the ball?
The paltry preseason rushing averages of 82.3 yards a game and 3.29 yards a carry ranked near the bottom of the league and among the club’s lowest averages in decades. It obviously distorts the evaluation when Kamara and the first-team offensive line played only one series, but you’d like to see more efficient production. The last four times the Saints posted such poor preseason rushing numbers — 2021, 2016, 2015 and 2008 — the team went on to post regular-season records of 9-8, 7-9, 7-9 and 8-8.
“I don’t think you’re ever where you want to be or need to be,” Allen said Sunday night. “We’re in a race to improve and get ready for the opener that’s here two weeks from today. There’s a lot of positives with this football team right now, yet, there’s certainly some things we have to improve.”
We’ll start to learn more about the Saints’ bona fides in a couple of weeks. Until then, they will remain one of the NFL’s most intriguing operations.