AAC preseason media poll: Will SMU be involved in 3-team race for conference supremacy?

ARLINGTON — Tulane had a magical 2022 college football season. The Green Wave defied expectations, won the American Athletic Conference, and then punctuated their run with a thrilling comeback win over Southern California in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium.
It was hard to forget, as voters in the AAC’s 2023 preseason media poll showed on Tuesday.
The Green Wave were picked to repeat as AAC Champions after receiving 20 first-place votes. UTSA, one of six newcomers to the conference, had nine first-place votes and was picked second, followed by SMU with three first-place votes. North Texas, under first-year head coach Eric Morris, was picked seventh.
The full preseason AAC media poll:
Team First-place votes Points
1. Tulane 20 457
2. UTSA 9 440
3. SMU 3 397
4. Memphis 1 362
5. Florida Atlantic 0 312
6. East Carolina 0 303
7. North Texas 0 261
8. UAB 1 209
9. Navy 0 199
10. Temple 0 182
11. Tulsa 0 160
12. Rice 0 138
13. South Florida 0 86
14. Charlotte 0 64
The first seven schools were the same in my ballot, but the order was slightly different.
My AAC preseason ballot:
1. Tulane
2. SMU
3. UTSA
4. Memphis
5. Florida Atlantic
6. East Carolina
7. North Texas
8. Temple
9. Tulsa
10. Charlotte
11. Navy
12. Rice
13. South Florida
14. UAB
Here are some thoughts on the league before the season and some explanation of my AAC ballot:
It might be a three-team race
A preface before this analysis: preseason polls are wrong often. Houston was picked to finish first last season, but ended up fourth. Tulane was picked seventh, and we all know how that went. How about another conference example? In the Big 12, TCU — the runner-up in the national championship — was picked seventh last year, while Kansas State — the eventual Big 12 Champions — was picked 5th.
That’s why the conference title isn’t awarded during the preseason, after all. Add in the fact that the transfer portal creates for different rosters every year, and it’s harder than ever to predict a conference outlook.
With that being said, three teams look like they’re in an upper tier.
Tulane lost a lot of talent, including running back Tyjae Spears, the conference’s offensive player of the year. The Green Wave do return quarterback Michael Pratt, however.
UTSA has a similar story, albeit in a different conference last year. Jeff Traylor led the Roadrunners to their second straight Conference USA Championship last season. Quarterback Frank Harris is back for a seventh year after earning conference MVP honors a year ago.
Tulane and UTSA play in the regular season finale. That might be for a spot in the conference title game, where I think SMU will be waiting.
The Mustangs don’t have a veteran returning quarterback, but they do have former All-American recruit Preston Stone, who is set to take over for Tanner Mordecai. They also have the 13th-ranked transfer portal class, according to 247Sports, and the top among schools not in the Power Five conferences. East Carolina is second on that list at 49.
I nearly picked SMU to win the conference, as three others did, but I gave the Green Wave the tiebreaker nod. They have the crown now, but UTSA and SMU have the talent to swipe it.
Is another Tulane lurking?
The one person who gave a first-place vote to Memphis might think so. Same with the person that gave UAB — my last place pick in my poll — the nod as preseason No. 1.
Memphis and Florida Atlantic, ranked fourth and fifth respectively, would make the most sense.
Memphis returns former Denton Ryan quarterback Seth Henigan, who is set to begin his third year as a starting quarterback. Henigan has thrown for 47 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in his first 24 games. Something that also bodes well for the Tigers: they play Tulane at home on a Friday night, they play SMU at home, and they don’t play UTSA.
Florida Atlantic has a former Texas two-step in former Longhorns coach Tom Herman and former Longhorns quarterback Casey Thompson. The two will reunite in Boca Raton with a chance to do some damage in the AAC. They also play both UTSA and Tulane at home while missing out on playing SMU and Memphis.
What Tulane accomplished last year was hard to predict, but the two teams with the best chance might be Memphis and FAU.
Wide open spaces
New Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi waited at the podium for another question. He’d already been asked three, and there was time before the next AAC coach stepped on stage, but another question never came.
“Maybe that’s because you have us ranked last and that’s all what you think of us,” Poggi said before pounding the table. “We get that message, and thank you.”
After media days was over, Poggi pulled out a cigar in the triple-digit Texas heat.
To be fair, Biff, I had you and the Charlotte 49ers picked 10th of 14 teams in my poll.
It shows just how difficult the back half of the AAC is to predict. Seven of the 14 schools have new head coaches. Half of the conference could have a new starting quarterback in 2023, among a host of other changes.
The back half is hard to predict. What’s not difficult to predict: Poggi will remember being picked last in his first year in the AAC.