Ole Miss football's Quinshon Judkins is 30-1 to win the Heisman. Here's his path to get there

OXFORD — Ole Miss football's Quinshon Judkins rushed for more yards last season than any other returning running back, with 1,567. That was enough to lead the SEC as a true freshman. He found the end zone 17 total times despite sharing the backfield with Zach Evans. Yet even the most optimistic betting odds as of Wednesday had him at 30-1 to win the Heisman Trophy, an implied probability of 3.23%. Why? Because times have changed in college football, and Judkins is not a quarterback like six of the last seven players to win the award. A running back (or fullback) has lifted the trophy 43 times since it was first presented to the University of Chicago's Jay Berwanger in 1935. From 1973-1983, a running back took home the Heisman every season. Since 2000, it's happened only three times: Mark Ingram in 2009, Derrick Henry in 2015 and Reggie Bush in 2004. Bush's Heisman was later stripped, but he nonetheless remains an important example to consider as we study Judkins' case. In fact, the only tailback to crack the top three in Heisman voting since Henry took home the college game's top individual prize was Stanford's Bryce Love, who finished second to Baker Mayfield in 2017. Judkins' path, the data shows, is narrow. Here's a look at what it might take for him to beat those odds. Plotting Judkins' statistical path to glory Henry, Bush and Ingram all did different things to force Heisman voters to make the increasingly rare call not to simply award the trophy to the game's best quarterback. Henry, for his part, was a volume monster. His 395 rushing attempts in 2015 are the most since 2000 by a Power Five running back, and he used them to rack up 2,219 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns. Bush was the definition of efficiency, averaging 8.7 yards per rush. He was an elite receiving back, too, posting 1,740 yards on the ground and 478 through the air. Ingram offered a mix of both. He carried 271 times on the season, averaging 6.1 yards per rush on his way to 1,658 yards rushing and 334 receiving yards. Blended together, the trio averaged 2,173.3 yards from scrimmage and 22 total touchdowns in their Heisman seasons. Thirty-four other running backs have surpassed that yards from scrimmage total since 2000. None of them have won a Heisman, lacking another key ingredient. MLB DRAFT FALLOUT: Sifting through the implications for Ole Miss baseball after 2023 MLB Draft What Ole Miss football will need to achieve Avid college football fans likely don't need to be told that Henry, Ingram and Bush each played for national titles in their Heisman seasons, with Henry and Ingram lifting the championship trophy at Alabama. The Heisman is awarded before the onset of bowl season, excluding postseason results from consideration. Still, it seems likely Ole Miss would have to find itself in and around the CFP conversation at a minimum for Judkins to get the nod. Is a quiet year for quarterbacks required? Maybe not Common sense would dictate that, given the quarterbacks' recent dominance of the award, the three running back Heismans since 2000 would have benefitted from down years under center. That's not really the case. In 2015, Henry usurped a sophomore Deshaun Watson, who threw for 4,109 yards and rushed for another 1,105 while leading Clemson through an undefeated regular season. In 2009, Ingram beat out Tim Tebow. Tebow threw for 2,895 yards and rushed for 910 in his senior season after winning the award in 2007. Bush won despite an exciting year for college quarterbacks in 2005, topping Vince Young's outstanding showing of 3,036 passing yards and 1,050 yards on the ground. Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn had big numbers under center that season, too. The Heisman formula for Judkins couldn't be much more difficult. But if he solves it, he might not have to worry about what anyone else does. David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.