Award Season: What defines an MVP? The word Value comes to mind
We received word from our insider in Las Vegas that there have been changes on a few proposition lines after last weekend's NFL games. We lay out all the numbers below, covering odds on all the awards.
First, let's get on the same page as to what we are discussing.
I get stuck on little things, like the meaning of the phrase Most Valuable Player. I learned long ago that when it comes to these awards, words do NOT have meaning. Read on, I'll explain
For those who have an opinion on the NFL's Most Valuable Player, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is now a clear-cut favorite, well until next weekend anyway. He was tied with San Francisco 49ers quarterack Brock Purdy a 5/2 odds last week, but jumped to 7/5 while Purdy is now 3/2. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is third at 25/4 and Houston's impressive rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who, against the Jets Sunday, had his first bad game and was injured, is off the board.
The player we feel is REALLY the Most valuable to his team is seventh on BetOnlind'slist because he is not a quarterback — Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill. And this is why we don't spend good money on these props. Because they are in sync with most the media and fans, the Vegas bookies don't really pay attention to the language of the award and usually just focus on the quarterback whose team is having the most conspicuous success, especially if it is on prime-time television.
This point was driven home to us in 2007, when New England's Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns and the Pats were 16-0 when 16 was a full regular season. We voted Brady as Offensive Player of the Year, whatever that means, and first team All-Pro. He had a great season on a great team. But we thought another quarterback was the most valuable to his team's success. After all, Brady had a loaded, veteran roster of teammates, especially including wide receiver Randy Moss, who caught 23 of Brady's 50 TDs.
The voting was in December and I thought the most valuable individual to his team's success was Brett Favre of the Green Bay Packers, who had the second youngest team in the league and was expected to win no more than eight games. The Pack went 13-3. The Patriots, by contrast, were expected to win 14 games and won 16. So, there's that.
When the results were announced, turned out I was the only one who DIDN'T vote for Brady, depriving him of being a unanimous choice. He had to settle for only 49 of 50 votes. And OMG, the folks in New England went nuts. I was labeled a Patriots hater, a Brady hater and a lunatic contrarian, among other things. So I spent hours on various talk shows in the Boston area, and a couple of network news shows thought it was worth a story and arrived with camera crews at our restaurant in my little Sierra Foothills town. I think the result was eye-opening for me as well as many of those who interviewed me who found a new appreciation for the description of an award.
FWIW, Brady didn't throw more than 39 touchdowns before or after that great 2007 season with Moss on the Patriots roster. In fact, Moss was on my short list of MVP candidates that year, ahead of Brady. Bringing this full circle, Brady told me years later that he understood my vote for Favre. He didn't say he agreed, just that he understood, which was a higher level of thoughtfulness than hundreds of fans who wrote me holiday wishes that year.
This year, I think Dak is doing well and may actually become most valuable. Purdy is almost flawless, but he is a very good cog in a well-constructed machine full of uber talent. He is certainly doing well, but that is a hell of a roster. To me, at this point, Hill stands out as most valuable as he seeks to become the first NFL receiver to surpass 2,000 yards. His value became even more obvious when he hurt his ankle against Tennessee Monday night. The Dolphins immediately lost their swagger. Titans muscleman rookie quarterback Will Levis overcame three Tennessee turnovers that each converted to a Dolphins touchdown, and the rookie QB rallied his team from a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes to a rousing 28-27 win.
I really doubt the Titans would have won if Hill could have played more. When he was in, the Dolphins were almost unstoppable. His value became very apparent in his absence. Some think he lost some votes by becoming hurt.
To me, his status as Most VALUABLE Player became even more apparent. We still have time to consider the whole thing.
Here are notes and lines from BetOnline in Vegas.
Tip: Don't bet money you can't afford to lose.
- MVP
- Dak Prescott is now the sole favorite.
- Lamar Jackson moved up to third.
- CJ Stroud is now off the board.
- Defensive Player of the Year
- First time in a while that we have the same favorite in back-to-back weeks. Micah Parsons is still the favorite.
- Josh Allen of the Jaguars is back on the board.
- Maxx Crosby is off the board
- Coach of the Year
- DeMeco Ryans is the new favorite.
- Kevin Stefanski is back on the board and now in fifth place.
- Zac Taylor is back on the board for the first time since week 4.
- Kevin O’Connell and Mike Tomlin are now off the board.
- Comeback Player of the Year
- Damar Hamlin is still the favorite.
- Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield are back on the board.
- Joe Flacco is now on the board.
- Joshua Dobbs and Kyler Murray are now off the board.
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
- The odds are now off the board due to CJ Stroud’s insurmountable lead.
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Jalen Carter is still the favorite and extends his lead.
- Brian Branch and Joey Porter Jr. are now off the board.
Awards Odds
Below are links to real-time odds for each award:
MVP: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-player-futures/mvp.
DPOY: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-player-futures/defensive-awards
COY: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-player-futures/coach-of-the-year
CPOY: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-player-futures/comeback-player-of-the-year
2023–24 Regular Season MVP
(Players in red have longer odds, players in green have shorter odds, and players in white stayed the same)
|
|
2/22/23 |
9/7/23 |
9/12/23 |
9/19/23 |
9/26/23 |
10/3/23 |
10/10/23 |
10/17/23 |
10/24/23 |
10/31/23 |
11/7/23 |
11/14/23 |
11/21/23 |
11/28/23 |
12/5/23 |
12/12/23 |
|
Dak Prescott |
20/1 |
22/1 |
16/1 |
12/1 |
25/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
33/1 |
50/1 |
28/1 |
12/1 |
6/1 |
5/2 |
7/5 |
|
Brock Purdy |
25/1 |
40/1 |
28/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
15/4 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
18/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
5/2 |
3/2 |
|
Lamar Jackson |
18/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
11/1 |
14/1 |
8/1 |
20/1 |
9/1 |
6/1 |
7/1 |
6/1 |
13/2 |
9/2 |
7/1 |
17/2 |
25/4 |
|
Jalen Hurts |
8/1 |
7/1 |
6/1 |
7/1 |
11/1 |
9/1 |
7/1 |
10/1 |
13/2 |
15/4 |
7/2 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
11/2 |
12/1 |
|
Josh Allen |
10/1 |
8/1 |
12/1 |
7/1 |
9/1 |
7/2 |
6/1 |
8/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
18/1 |
33/1 |
25/1 |
22/1 |
50/1 |
12/1 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
5/1 |
13/2 |
8/1 |
13/2 |
4/1 |
5/1 |
4/1 |
4/1 |
5/2 |
7/2 |
9/4 |
13/4 |
5/1 |
21/4 |
8/1 |
14/1 |
|
Tyreek Hill |
100/1 |
150/1 |
100/1 |
25/1 |
20/1 |
66/1 |
66/1 |
50/1 |
25/1 |
25/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
33/1 |
12/1 |
14/1 |
|
Tua Tagovailoa |
14/1 |
25/1 |
5/1 |
6/1 |
13/4 |
5/1 |
5/1 |
3/1 |
5/1 |
3/1 |
8/1 |
7/1 |
13/2 |
10/1 |
17/2 |
28/1 |
|
Christian McCaffrey |
OTB |
150/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
33/1 |
10/1 |
14/1 |
14/1 |
12/1 |
11/1 |
12/1 |
18/1 |
25/1 |
14/1 |
22/1 |
40/1 |
|
CJ Stroud |
100/1 |
150/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
12/1 |
28/1 |
28/1 |
50/1 |
OTB |
2023–24 Defensive Player of the Year
(Players in red have longer odds, players in green have shorter odds, and players in white stayed the same)
|
|
3/16/23 |
9/7/23 |
9/12/23 |
9/19/23 |
9/26/23 |
10/3/23 |
10/10/23 |
10/17/23 |
10/24/23 |
10/31/23 |
11/7/23 |
11/14/23 |
11/21/23 |
11/28/23 |
12/5/23 |
12/12/23 |
|
Micah Parsons |
6/1 |
4/1 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
5/2 |
3/2 |
9/4 |
9/4 |
9/5 |
5/2 |
5/2 |
9/4 |
7/5 |
2/3 |
|
Myles Garrett |
9/1 |
5/1 |
4/1 |
12/1 |
7/2 |
5/2 |
5/2 |
7/2 |
12/5 |
11/5 |
7/4 |
7/5 |
5/6 |
8/5 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
|
T.J. Watt |
5/1 |
9/1 |
15/2 |
5/2 |
5/2 |
5/1 |
9/4 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
21/10 |
2/1 |
4/1 |
7/5 |
14/5 |
21/4 |
|
DaRon Bland |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
16/1 |
12/1 |
14/1 |
|
Nick Bosa |
10/1 |
12/1 |
9/1 |
20/1 |
28/1 |
28/1 |
14/1 |
16/1 |
22/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
28/1 |
40/1 |
25/1 |
|
Josh Allen |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
100/1 |
OTB |
75/1 |
75/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
28/1 |
|
Danielle Hunter |
100/1 |
100/1 |
100/1 |
40/1 |
75/1 |
100/1 |
OTB |
100/1 |
75/1 |
40/1 |
45/1 |
45/1 |
45/1 |
40/1 |
40/1 |
40/1 |
|
Maxx Crosby |
12/1 |
18/1 |
28/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
14/1 |
25/1 |
25/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
28/1 |
28/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
OTB |
2023–24 Coach of the Year
(Coaches in red have longer odds, coaches in green have shorter odds, and coaches in white stayed the same)
|
|
3/21/23 |
9/7/23 |
9/12/23 |
9/19/23 |
9/26/23 |
10/3/23 |
10/10/23 |
10/17/23 |
10/24/23 |
10/31/23 |
11/7/23 |
11/14/23 |
11/21/23 |
11/28/23 |
12/5/23 |
12/12/23 |
|
DeMeco Ryans |
20/1 |
22/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
22/1 |
5/1 |
14/1 |
7/1 |
11/2 |
9/1 |
4/1 |
5/2 |
5/2 |
15/4 |
3/1 |
3/1 |
|
Dan Campbell |
12/1 |
10/1 |
3/1 |
10/1 |
15/2 |
7/2 |
7/2 |
3/1 |
7/2 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
7/2 |
|
Shane Steichen |
25/1 |
22/1 |
33/1 |
20/1 |
11/1 |
10/1 |
9/1 |
25/1 |
40/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
25/1 |
40/1 |
8/1 |
9/2 |
5/1 |
|
Mike McDaniel |
22/1 |
14/1 |
11/1 |
5/1 |
11/4 |
4/1 |
15/4 |
13/4 |
7/2 |
3/1 |
5/1 |
17/2 |
7/1 |
6/1 |
13/2 |
11/2 |
|
Kevin Stefanski |
40/1 |
40/1 |
20/1 |
25/1 |
25/1 |
50/1 |
33/1 |
25/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
33/1 |
28/1 |
22/1 |
33/1 |
OTB |
71 |
|
Matt Lafleur |
25/1 |
11/1 |
10/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
33/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
40/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
16/1 |
9/1 |
|
Kyle Shanahan |
16/1 |
28/1 |
20/1 |
20/1 |
12/1 |
9/1 |
5/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
25/1 |
25/1 |
28/1 |
28/1 |
22/1 |
12/1 |
10/1 |
|
Sean Payton |
7/1 |
10/1 |
28/1 |
90/1 |
200/1 |
100/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
33/1 |
16/1 |
33/1 |
12/1 |
|
John Harbaugh |
25/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
12/1 |
33/1 |
25/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
18/1 |
22/1 |
16/1 |
40/1 |
40/1 |
25/1 |
28/1 |
18/1 |
|
Zac Taylor |
28/1 |
25/1 |
50/1 |
100/1 |
100/1 |
200/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
25/1 |
|
Nick Sirianni |
28/1 |
50/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
25/1 |
40/1 |
33/1 |
40/1 |
20/1 |
20/1 |
14/1 |
25/1 |
10/1 |
11/1 |
22/1 |
33/1 |
|
Kevin O’Connell |
28/1 |
33/1 |
50/1 |
66/1 |
100/1 |
125/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
16/1 |
6/1 |
16/1 |
25/1 |
33/1 |
OTB |
|
Mike Tomlin |
25/1 |
12/1 |
20/1 |
18/1 |
18/1 |
33/1 |
20/1 |
16/1 |
12/1 |
25/1 |
14/1 |
12/1 |
20/1 |
12/1 |
28/1 |
OTB |
2023–24 Comeback Player of the Year
(Players in red have longer odds, players in green have shorter odds, and players in white stayed the same)
|
|
2/26/23 |
9/7/23 |
9/12/23 |
9/19/23 |
10/3/23 |
10/10/23 |
10/17/23 |
10/24/23 |
10/31/23 |
11/7/23 |
11/14/23 |
11/21/23 |
11/28/23 |
12/12/23 |
|
Damar Hamlin |
20/21 |
1/6 |
1/3 |
5/7 |
2/5 |
1/2 |
2/3 |
4/7 |
2/3 |
10/11 |
2/7 |
1/5 |
1/4 |
1/4 |
|
Matthew Stafford |
33/1 |
25/1 |
16/1 |
25/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
14/1 |
18/1 |
25/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
7/1 |
|
Tua Tagovailoa |
20/1 |
12/1 |
4/1 |
2/1 |
9/2 |
4/1 |
5/2 |
5/2 |
2/1 |
11/4 |
6/1 |
15/2 |
4/1 |
8/1 |
|
Baker Mayfield |
33//1 |
25/1 |
16/1 |
25/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
14/1 |
18/1 |
25/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
16/1 |
|
Joe Flacco |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
16/1 |
|
Joshua Dobbs |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
15/2 |
9/1 |
9/1 |
OTB |
|
Kyler Murray |
12/1 |
100/1 |
100/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
14/1 |
18/1 |
18/1 |
OTB |
2023–24 Offensive Rookie of the Year
Note: The OROY odds are off the board. CJ Stroud was a 1/100 favorite to bring home the award and its seemingly an insurmountable lead.
2023–24 Rookie Defensive Player of the Year
(Players in red have longer odds, players in green have shorter odds, and players in white stayed the same)
|
|
5/1/23 |
9/7/23 |
9/12/23 |
9/19/23 |
9/26/23 |
10/3/23 |
10/10/23 |
10/17/23 |
10/24/23 |
10/31/23 |
11/7/23 |
11/14/23 |
11/21/23 |
11/28/23 |
12/5/23 |
12/12/23 |
|
Jalen Carter |
4/1 |
6/1 |
13/4 |
8/5 |
3/2 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
2/3 |
4/5 |
1/4 |
4/7 |
1/2 |
10/21 |
4/7 |
1/4 |
|
Will Anderson |
3/1 |
3/1 |
7/2 |
5/1 |
7/2 |
9/1 |
12/1 |
12/1 |
7/1 |
12/1 |
18/1 |
33/1 |
25/1 |
14/1 |
7/5 |
9/2 |
|
Devon Witherspoon |
8/1 |
10/1 |
22/1 |
28/1 |
28/1 |
7/4 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
9/4 |
5/4 |
3/1 |
17/10 |
17/10 |
7/4 |
21/4 |
7/1 |
|
Brian Branch |
20/1 |
33/1 |
20/1 |
20/1 |
16/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
14/1 |
9/1 |
9/1 |
14/1 |
22/1 |
28/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
OTB |
|
Joey Porter Jr. |
20/1 |
22/1 |
28/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
66/1 |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
OTB |
28/1 |
33/1 |
50/1 |
40/1 |
50/1 |
OTB |