SMU football preview: Can Rhett Lashlee rack up double-digit wins in 2023 season?

By Joseph Hoyt
5:00 AM on Aug 28, 2023 CDT — Updated at 8:00 AM on Aug 28, 2023 CDT
UNIVERSITY PARK — The theme for the state of the SMU football program is taking the next step.
The athletic department plans to take a step by investing $110 million into a new end zone complex, which should be a welcome upgrade to Ford Stadium once it’s completed after this season.
School leaders have been trying to take the next step into a large conference, first by flirting with the Pac-12 and now by politicking the Atlantic Coast Conference — along with Stanford and Cal — in hopes of securing an invite.
There’s a next step to be had for SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee and the 2023 Mustangs, as well: can SMU win a conference title for the first time since 1984?
There are plenty of reasons to suggest this could be SMU’s year.
Here’s a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for SMU and a win-loss prediction for the season.
Best-case scenario
The Mustangs have had something in their favor for a while now. Their schedule is lacking some serious firepower from the year before. Gone are perennial conference contenders Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston. Tulane, the reigning conference champion, and UT-San Antonio, the back-to-back conference champion formerly of Conference USA, aren’t on SMU’s schedule.
Instead, the Mustangs play half their conference games against schools with a new head coach.
There are two tough games in particular early on. SMU will head up to Norman in Week 2 to play an Oklahoma team looking to overcome an underwhelming first year for head coach Brent Venables. Then, in the final nonconference game, SMU will face former head coach Sonny Dykes and the reigning national champion runner-up in Fort Worth for the first time.
As for the best-case scenario? SMU breezes through a weakened conference schedule and finds a way to upset either Oklahoma or TCU for its first 11-win season since Eric Dickerson was trouncing defenders.
How would that happen? Let’s start with the defense. Coincidentally, the last time SMU had a top-25 scoring defense was also the last time the Mustangs won a conference title. That could be a high bar for SMU to reach, but this isn’t the same defense that was ranked 119th in the nation last year.
Half of the starters on defense come from the transfer portal, including the Miami defensive line duo of Jordan Miller and Elijah Roberts, as well as former Stanford safety Jonathan McGill and a pair of transfer corners in Charles Woods (West Virginia ) and Chris Megginson (Liberty). The defense not only talks about being better and playing with an edge this season, but they’ve also looked the part in practice.
That should be of great service to an offense flushed with skill position talent and a first-year starting quarterback that was SMU’s highest-rated recruit since the Death Penalty. Preston Stone will have a tough task ahead of him, especially early on, but he’s shown enough in games the last two seasons and in fall camp to inspire optimism.
Now, switching gears …
Worst-case scenario
Let’s start with Stone here. Coaches will tell you that quarterbacks get too much praise and too much blame. It’s hard not to see a reality, from the outside perspective, where this doesn’t exist this season.
Stone was a four-year starter at nearby Parish Episcopal. He was an All-American that spurned offers from nearly everywhere in the country to stay home and play for SMU. His fate as an overly hyped player was set the moment he put on an SMU hat and took the road less traveled.
Now SMU fans are excited to see him as the team’s starter. In the best-case scenario, he lives up to the billing, leading SMU to a conference title for the first time in nearly 40 years. In the worst-case scenario, things don’t go as well.
The two nonconference tests SMU has won’t be easy. Though the conference schedule lacks last year’s top-end firepower, road trips to Greenville, N.C., to face East Carolina and Philadelphia to face Temple in an eight-day stretch won’t be an easy swing. The contest at Memphis on Nov. 18 could decide who makes the conference title game.
The road to a conference title isn’t as hard as it has been in year’s past, but idle hands at the wheel could find a pothole or two.
Predictions
The best-case scenario appears more likely. It’s hard to find many holes on this SMU team. Sure, the linebacker and tight end positions don’t have the depth they had previously, but there’s still high-end talent. Every other position is deep, especially defensive and skill positions.
SMU recruited like a Power Five team in the transfer portal. The Mustangs look the part, as well.
I think SMU makes it to the conference title game. There, a worthy opponent — and a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl — will be waiting.
Win-loss record: 10-2
Game-by-game
Date Opponent Prediction
Sept. 2 vs. Louisiana Tech W
Sept. 9 at Oklahoma L
Sept. 16 vs. Prairie View A&M W
Sept. 23 at TCU L
Sept. 30 vs. Charlotte W
Oct. 12 at East Carolina W
Oct. 20 at Temple W
Oct. 28 vs. Tulsa W
Nov. 4 at Rice W
Nov. 10 vs. North Texas W
Nov. 18 at Memphis W
Nov. 25 vs. Navy W