830653 Websites

By Dan Santaromita and Ari Wasserman For several years, Brent Venables’ name came up as a hot coaching candidate when he was a prominent assistant coach at Clemson. After taking his time to pick the right head coaching job, Venables’ first year as the head coach of Oklahoma was not easy. The Sooners were 6-7 in 2022, taking plenty of the shine off of the Venables hire. Despite that, the listed regular season win total on BetMGM is all the way up at 9.5, showing plenty of optimism in a quick bounce-back. Between a returning starting quarterback, a talented transfer class, a loaded high school class and a schedule that looks slightly easier on paper than last year’s, that win total line makes sense. There are reasonable explanations for the down 2022 as well. Venables was not put in the best position to succeed right away. OU’s offseason had plenty of drama, starting with Lincoln Riley’s surprise departure to USC. Riley took prized quarterback Caleb Williams with him and Williams won the Heisman Trophy. Meanwhile, Dillon Gabriel, OU’s own transfer QB, got hurt in a 55-24 loss to TCU in October. The following week against rival Texas, OU only managed to pass for 39 yards in Gabriel’s absence and lost 49-0. That was the biggest shutout loss in Oklahoma football history and the most lopsided loss to Texas ever. While Gabriel’s injury was a significant reason for how one-sided the final score was, it was a sign that Oklahoma was rebuilding more than many had realized when the Sooners were ranked ninth in both major preseason polls. Will the Sooners still be rebuilding in 2023 or will last year prove to be a one-off fluke as Venables recovers from the ashes Riley left behind? On one hand, Oklahoma won 10 or more games every year from 2015-2021, other than the truncated 2020 season when the Sooners were 9-2. A “normal” Oklahoma year is hitting the over. However, requiring 10 regular season wins is asking a lot for a team that gave up more than 40 points in a majority of its Big 12 games last season. Can the Sooners hit the over? Expert view Ari Wasserman: One of the most interesting stories in college football season is that Oklahoma and Texas, in their final years in the Big 12, have the same exact number for season win totals. There’s a catch, though. Oklahoma doesn’t have Alabama in its non-conference slate. Oklahoma also doesn’t have to play Texas Tech (a dark horse in the Big 12, in my opinion) or Kansas State, two teams that beat the Sooners a year ago. To me, it seems clear that Texas is going to be the better team this year. But even if you say Oklahoma loses to the Longhorns — which is far from a guarantee — where are the other two losses on the schedule? Venables got off to a rough start in Year 1. But the coach has had more than 75 percent of his roster turn over since his arrival. The Sooners brought in a few impactful transfers, and they signed one of the best high school classes in program history. Also, when has Oklahoma been down for prolonged periods of time? They’ve consistently been a team you can count on. Texas has been the opposite. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back to lead an offense that averaged more than 30 points per game last season, and he’ll be pushed in practice by superstar freshman Jackson Arnold. The Sooners have a nasty running back tandem with Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk. There are some questions to be filled at receiver, but when has Oklahoma ever not had good receivers? Also, you can probably count on Oklahoma’s defense taking a huge step forward in Year 2 under a defensive-minded coach. Oklahoma lost five games by a single score last year. You lose close games before you win close games. It would be brave to bet the under here. What do our simulations say? The Athletic’s Austin Mock runs thousands of simulated seasons that produce a projected win total. His model projects Oklahoma to win an average of 8.8 games. Only Texas (9.1) has a higher projected win total in the Big 12. The Longhorns are also the favorite to win the Big 12, just ahead of Oklahoma. Fixing the defense While the most noteworthy game of Oklahoma’s season was the 49-0 loss to Texas due to an inability to pass the ball, the defense was the more consistent issue for the Sooners. Venables was a defensive coordinator at Clemson, and at Oklahoma before that, but implementing his defense did not go well in Year 1. The Sooners gave up exactly 30 points per game (among Big 12 teams, only Kansas gave up more) and a whopping 461 yards per game. Only nine Division 1 teams allowed more yards per game. Edge rusher Ethan Downs had 13.5 tackles for loss last year as part of a second-team All-Big 12 season. He’s back, along with leading tackler Danny Stutsman at linebacker. Five-star recruits Adepoju Adebawore, an edge rusher, and Peyton Bowen, a safety, also join the roster. Eight more transfers on the defensive side of the ball, six of which are coming from Power 5 programs, will help bolster the unit. Konnor Near was an All-American at Division II Ferris State. Dasan McCullough had 6.5 tackles for loss as a freshman linebacker at Indiana. Rondell Bothroyd racked up 14 sacks in the last two seasons at Wake Forest en route to being honorable mention All-ACC both years. There could be a number of new starters on a defense that needed them. An influx of new personnel plus another year with Venables’ system should help, but talent is rarely lacking in Norman. More depth in the quarterback room On the offensive side of the ball, bringing back Gabriel is the main source of optimism. Wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. had more than 1,000 yards and went in the second round of the NFL Draft. Running back Eric Gray had 1,366 rushing yards and was drafted in the fifth round. Even without the top two weapons from last year, Gabriel is a talented, experienced quarterback coming off a season with 3,168 passing yards and 25 touchdowns against six interceptions. He’ll also have a high-profile backup in five-star QB recruit Jackson Arnold. If Gabriel gets hurt again this year, Arnold gives them a talented fill-in. Oklahoma’s 2023 schedule Arkansas State (Home) Sept. 2 3-9 -- SMU (H) Sept. 9 7-6 -- Tulsa (Away) Sept. 16 5-7 -- Cincinnati (A) Sept. 23 9-4 -- Iowa State (H) Sept. 30 4-8 W 27-13 Texas (Neutral) Oct. 7 8-5 L 0-49 UCF (H) Oct. 21 9-5 -- Kansas (A) Oct. 28 6-7 W 52-42 Oklahoma State (A) Nov. 4 7-6 W 28-13 West Virginia (H) Nov. 11 5-7 L 20-23 BYU (A) Nov. 18 8-5 -- TCU (H) Nov. 24 13-2 L 24-55 There are a lot of new faces in Oklahoma’s schedule. Not only are all three non-conference opponents new from last year, but the Big 12 has a new look this year. Four new teams, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, join the league before the Sooners and Texas leave for the SEC next year. Of the newcomers, OU only misses Houston. The Sooners also miss defending Big 12 champs Kansas State, Texas Tech and Baylor. OU lost all three of those games last year. OU went 0-5 in one-score games last year. The only teams to blow out the Sooners, Texas and TCU, are still on the schedule this year. TCU lost a lot of talent from last year’s national runner-up team and will have to travel to Norman for the regular season finale, which could be decisive in whether OU goes over or under the listed 9.5 win total.