Over/Under: Predicting individual stats for the 2023 football season

July 20, 2023 12:41 pm
The 2023 season is just over six weeks away. We’ve made broad and overarching predictions, but today we’ll get into the weeds.
Small details determine close matchups. That’s what we’re looking at with Texas and company heading into 2023.
Though teams can and should overcome poor officiating, blatant missed calls can swing a game. In 2023, Texas’ Big 12 opponents were called for just one holding penalty all season. Some would argue, “There’s holding on every play.” That’s not really the case, but there are clear and obvious holding calls that officials missed last season. And they missed them over and over again.
One of the more obvious examples of one-sided officiating came against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys received 14 penalty calls in their favor while being flagged a grand total of zero times. Can we call 14-0 a ratio?
Let’s predict how minute details of the season will unfold for Texas.
1
Holding calls against Texas opponents
Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Over 1.5.
We’re going on a limb here, but Texas’ conference opponents should be called for more than one holding penalty against the Longhorns. If officials duplicate last season’s result, I have my suspicions.
2
Games where Texas' Big 12 opponent is not penalized
Under 2.5.
Only two-or-less opponents should make it through a game without being penalized against Texas. In a league that makes its officials famous for more screen time than necessary, it is surprising when a team makes it through four quarters without a penality.
3
Touchdown passes for Quinn Ewers
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Over 29.5.
I am unaware what touchdown total Vegas predicts for Quinn Ewers, but I see a 35 touchdown season for the Texas signal caller. What used to be the marker for a Heisman quarterback is now a completely attainable number. Considering the Texas receiving corps’ depth upgrades in addition to Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jordan Whittington, Ewers should reach that total. For reference, Joe Burrow put up 63 touchdown passes in 2019 after just 16 touchdowns a year prior.
4
Combined touchdowns for Worthy, Sanders and AD Mitchell
Over 19.5.
I expect the majority of touchdowns, perhaps even two-thirds of the touchdown receptions, to go to Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders and AD Mitchell. And that number total should be high.
5
Barryn Sorrell sack total
Under 9.5.
Barryn Sorrell might not reach ten sacks, but there’s a realistic chance he puts up eight sacks in 2023. The Texas defense will need a total like that to reach another level defensively.
6
Games played by Isaiah Neyor
Over 5.5.
If Texas has Isaiah Neyor close to 100 percent for the Alabama game, its chances of winning the matchup dramatically increase. The Longhorns could have him at least for the early matchups. Staying healthy through the Oklahoma game would be a huge victory.
7
Games started by Anthony Hill
Over 8.5.
Several sites are going to pump the brakes on Hill, but he is clearly the Longhorns’ most talented linebacker outside of Jaylan Ford. Perhaps he’s more talented and simply less experienced than Ford. Time will tell. Texas would be wise to play Hill as much as possible.
8
Points scored against Oklahoma
Under 52.5.
Texas scored 48 points against the Sooners with a bad team in 2021. The following season, the team put up 49 points in the matchup without passing for more than the final quarter of the game. That’s the beginning of a trend. Texas isn’t going to put up a 60-burger like Oklahoma has three times in the rivalry. Even so, it should continue to score 40-plus points in the game.
9
Ewers interception total
Over 9.5.
Ewers should have double-digit interceptions this season. If for nothing else, Texas should be passing the ball plenty this season. TCU and Iowa State could be among the more likely multi-interception games for Ewers.