Jayden Daniels

OVERVIEW

Remember Cam Newton at Auburn in 2010 or Joe Burrow at LSU in 2019? They each went from almost zero to hero in one startling season. Newton was the first draft pick in 2011 and Burrow was No. 1 in 2020. That's what we think we have in Jayden Daniels, who was rated a second-day pick when he considered coming out in 2023, but rocketed into the top three of the 2024 draft with a 2023 season that earned a Heisman Trophy. After a sensational sixth season, we can see Daniels' potential as a top-three QB selection in this draft. We see a more polished version of two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Daniels doesn't run as well as Jackson, but he is a much smoother passer. Daniels can make things happen at the next level, even as a rookie.

That said, another quarterback who rocketed to the top in one season was Robert Griffin III — aka RG3 — who also won a Heisman (2011) and was drafted No. 2 overall by Washington out of Baylor in 2012. He was similar in build and in athleticism to Daniel with a track background (hurdler) . RG3 was 6-2 3/8, 223 pounds, but his legs looked spindley. Daniels is 6-3 5/8, 210 and also has thin-looking legs, but he has room to pack on muscle. RG3 started as a rookie and injuries began accumulating immediately. After winning ROY in 2012, RG3 suffered a serious knee injury in a playoff loss to Seattle. He never really recovered from that setback. He sat 2015 and after 2020 became a TV broadcaster. To close the loop on comparisons, Lamar Jackson is listed at 6-2, 210, but is an elite runner. We like what we see in Daniels but can't shake the image of RG3 limping around at the end of his first year. Just sayin'.

Daniels was college football's most ascendent quarterback last season, and in the past two months some rated him ahead of Caleb Williams — we agree with that assessment. Last year, we thought Daniels wasn't synced up with the passing game due to his run-first approach. The 2023 season was different. He became a constant threat both as a runner and a passer. Daniels won the coveted Heisman Trophy, giving him a CFB Grand Slam for a 2023 in which he also was the Associated Press Player of the Year, the Walter Camp national player of the year award, and he received the Davey O'Brien Award as the top quarterback in college football.

After playing three seasons at and graduating from Arizona State. Daniels transferred to LSU for the 2022 season and helped the Tigers to a 9-3 regular season that included a win over Alabama and propelled LSU to the SEC Championship Game. He threw for 2,774 yards on 373 attempts with a completion percent of 68.1, averaging of 7.4 yards per pass. He threw 16 TDs and finished with a QB rating of 100.8. Though sacked 45 times, Daniels ran for 1,013 yards and averaged 7.1 per run. In three seasons at ASU Daniels threw for 6,024 yards and 32 TDs against 13 interceptions.

ANALYSIS

Strengths: To close the loop on comparisons, Baltimore's two-time NFL MVP Lamar "Action" Jackson is listed at 6-2, 210, but is an elite runner. Like Jackson, Daniels is a danger as a runner and a passer. He is not quite the open-field threat Jackson is but is a superior passer, with an excellent throwing motion that achieves consistent results. Daniels shows accuracy to all levels of the field and has the arm strength to make the requisite NFL throws. He demonstrates good velocity and ball placement on quick slants, and a nice touch on seam routes and post-corner throws — he can attack defenses vertically and horizontally. Daniels' 208.0 passing effiency rating is the highest in NCAA history, eclipsing former LSU and current Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who posted a 202.0 rating in 2019.

And what about Daniels' running? He rushed for 1,134 yards with 10 touchdowns. That's more than some of the top college running backs. He is a loose-limbed, flexible athlete with speed to pick up yardage in scramble situations. He has a thin, athletic build with room for another 10–15 pounds of muscle. As NFL teams move more and more towards mobile quarterbacks, they are at least trying to feel comfortable with the face of the franchise galloping into danger. 

Weaknesses: Daniels showed significant improvement across the board from in 2023 compared to 2022, when he got by on athleticism but lacked consistency. Working in a new system at LSU in 2022, he was most comfortable running and his timing with the passing game seemed to be off. He struggled to recognize defenses pre-snap, and then showed unreliable decision-making after the snap, especially against the blitz. He basically didn't decipher information as quickly he should, but by the middle of 2023 he was much improved at seeing the entire field and understanding coverages. Because Daniels can be an aggressive runner, he probably should pack on more muscle in his lower body so we don't have a repeat of the RG3 experience.

Before LSU: A 4-star recruit out of San Bernardino, California. Born on December 18th, 2000. Started all four years at Cajon High School. Threw for over 14,000 yards and 170 touchdown passes. 3,645 rushing yards as well. Alumni of the Under Armour All-American game. Committed to Arizona State on December 13th, 2018. Started all but one game during his freshman campaign in 2019. Totaled 2,943 passing yards and a 17:2 TD:INT ratio. Added 335 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. Honorable Mention Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year in 2019. During COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, started all four games. Was named to Davey O'Brien Award Watch List prior to the 2020 campaign. Transferred from Arizona State to LSU for the 2022 season.

FRANKLY: A lot has changed since last year when we thought Daniels was a second-day consideration had he entered the 2023 draft. Back then, he was a run-first QB who wasn't in sync with the passing game. It was his first season in a new system, at LSU, after three years at Arizona State. In 2023, he improved on every aspect, especially his decision-making. So now we are comparing him to a version of Lamar Jackson. Although not qjuite as good running, Daniels is appreciably better than Jackson as a passer. It was a while ago that the astute Pat Kirwan of Moving the Chains (Sirius channel 88) said Daniels is the best quarterback prospect in this draft. He is certainly in of the top three, and climbing in our eyes thanks to the red flags we noted on USC's vaunted Caleb Williams.

Daniels Data Points are revealing

We don't rely on analytics and data points to make a case, but some do validate what we see in game tapes and offer a tangible reference. Mike Tainer, a former math teacher, knows how to spin data on Substack's Too Deep Zone and put together a revealing set of data points that frame Jayden Daniels as definitely one of the best, if not the best, quarterback propect in the 2024 draft. 

Passes of 15-plus Air Yards, 2023

1. Jayden Daniels: 53-of-79 (67.1%), 1783 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT, 28.1 ANY/A 

2. Caleb Williams: 47-of-86 (54.7%), 1612 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 20.9 ANY/A

3. Bo Nix: 44-of-78 (56.4%), 1,420 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT, 20.1 ANY/A

4. Drake Maye: 63-of-122 (51.6%), 1884 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT, 16.4 ANY/A

5. J.J. McCarthy: 47-of-87 (54.0%), 1,145 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT, 14.9 ANY/A

6. Michael Penix: 72-of-150 (48.0%), 2,186 yards, 18 TDs, 8 INT, 14.6 ANY/A

7. Spencer Rattler: 35-of-74 (47.3%), 1,081 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT, 12.9 ANY/A

8 . Jordan Travis: 28-of-85 (32.9%), 831 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 10.7 ANY/A

 

Passing Under Pressure, 2023

1. Bo Nix: 43-of-67 (64.2%), 603 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks, 9.7 ANY/A

2. Jayden Daniels: 27-of-54 (50.0%), 524 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 22 sacks, 7.5 ANY/A 

3. J.J. McCarthy: 54-of-79 (68.4%), 799 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT, 19 sacks, 6.6 ANY/A 

4. Michael Penix: 64-of-147 (43.5%), 1,033 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT, 12 sacks, 5.5 ANY/A 

5. Jordan Travis: 37-of-75 (49.3%), 601 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 14 sacks, 5.3 ANY/A 

6. Drake Maye: 42-of-99 (43.4%), 750 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT, 29 sacks, 5.1 ANY/A 

7. Caleb Williams: 47-of-105 (44.8%), 738 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT, 33 sacks, 3.5 ANY/A 

8. Spencer Rattler: 62-of-117 (53.0%), 884 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT, 42 sacks, 3.2 ANY/A 

 

Pressure Scrambles, 2023

1. Jayden Daniels: 23 scrambles for 324 yards.

2. Spencer Rattler: 22 scrambles for 194 yards

3. Drake Maye: 18 scrambles for 124 yards

4. Caleb Williams: 14 scrambles for 81 yards

 

Broken Plus Missed Tackle Rates, 2023

1. Jayden Daniels: 33.3%

3. Caleb Williams: 22.9%

 

Third/Fourth Down Passes Past the Sticks, 2023

1. Caleb Williams: 55 attempts, 61.8%, 15.1 Air Yards/Target, 15.3 ANY/A 

2. Jayden Daniels: 33 attempts, 63.6%, 10.1 Air Yards/Target, 13.4 ANY/A 

 

Over-the-Middle Passing, 2023

1. Jayden Daniels: 54-of-68 (79.4%) 714 yards, 12 TD, 1 INT, 13.4 ANY/A

2. Caleb Williams: 54-of-72 (75%), 839 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT, 13.0 ANY/A

Sports Info Solutions allows users to sort for passes on which a quarterback’s feet are “moving” or “shuffling,” as opposed to planted. It’s worth examining this data in search of some illustration of our prospects’ abilities to throw off-platform or on the run.

 

Footwork “Moving” or “Shuffling” 2023

1. Jayden Daniels: 33-of-45 (73.3%), 580 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 15.1 ANY/A

3. Caleb Williams: 65-of-117 (55.6%), 1,027 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT, 9.8 ANY/A

 

College Career Statistics 

YEAR (GP/GS)   CP-ATT    CP%   YDS    TD   INT   CAR    YDS   AVG   TD      NOTES                                                         

2019: (12/12)   205-338      60.7    2,943    17     2      125      355    2.8     3     Arizona State; First true freshman to start season opener in ASU history

2020: (4/4)        49-84         58.3    701        5     1        33       223    6.8     4     Arizona State; Pandemic-shortened  season

2021: (13/13)   197-301      65.4    2,380    10    10     138      710    5.1     6     Arizona State

2022: (14/14)   266-388      68.6    2,913    17     3      186      885    4.8    11      LSU; Led team in rushing; Led all FBS QBs in rushing yards

2023: (12/12)   236-327      72.2    3,812    40     4      135     1,134  8.4    10    LSU; Heisman Trophy; Davey O’Brien Award; SEC Off. POY; First team All-SEC

TOTAL (55/55) 953-1,438   66.3  12,749   89   20      617      3,307  5.4    34

                         

                          HT        WT     HAND     ARM       WING                                                                    

COMBINE    N/A (invited, but no measurements,  skill drills or workout  — choice)

PRO DAY     6035     210     9 3/8       32 1/2    76 3/4    -            -            -               -               -               -          -            -        (throwing only)

 

HISTORY — from college profile

2022 (jr): Transfer quarterback from Arizona State where he served as the starter for three straight years … Enrolled at LSU in January and took part in spring practice ... Led Tigers to 10-4 record ... Culminated season by completing 12-of-17 for 139 yards (rushed for 67 yards) as LSU crushed Purdue 63-7 in Citrus Bowl ... Threw for 2,913 yards and 17 TDS (against three interceptions) ... Rushed for 885 yards (4.8 yards per carry) ... Completed 32-of-45 for 300 yards in loss to No. 8 Tennessee (10/8) ... Completed 23-of-32 for 349 yards and three TDs in road win at Florida (10/15) ... Completed 21-of-28 for 248 yards and two scores in 45-20 win over No. 7 Mississippi ... Against UAB (11/19), completed 22-of-29 for 297 yards and a TD in 41-10 victory ... Threw for 208 yards (16-of-24) and one touchdown in SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia (12/3).

—at Arizona State—

Helped the Sun Devils to an 18-11 mark and two bowl appearances in his three seasons at Arizona State … Started 29 games in 3 years … Passed for over 6,000 yards and 32 touchdowns in 29 games with the Sun Devils … Added another 1,288 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns … Posted a pair of 100-yard rushing games (125 vs. UNLV, 2021; 111 vs. Southern Cal, 2020) … Graduated from Arizona State … Pursuing a master’s degree in liberal arts.

2021 (jr): Started all 13 games at quarterback, guiding the Sun Devils to an 8-5 record and an appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl … Threw for 2,381 yards and 10 TDs … Added 710 rushing yards and 6 scores … Tossed for a season-best 287 yards and 2 TDs in win over UCLA … Had second career 100-yard passing/rushing game against UNLV in week 2 with 175 passing yards and 125 rushing yards in win … Rushed for a pair of TDs and threw for 236 yards in win over Colorado … Led the Pac-12 in completion percentage at 65.4, connecting on 197-of-301 passes.

2020 (soph): Started all 4 games in Arizona State’s COVID-shortened season … Sun Devils went 2-2 with wins over Arizona State and Oregon State … Threw for 134 yards and a TD and added first career 100-yard rushing game (111 yards) against Southern Cal in season-opener … Accounted for 3 TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing) in 70-7 win over Arizona in week 3 … Rushed for 83 yards and 2 scores in win over Oregon State in regular season finale … Finished year with 701 passing yards and 5 TDs to go along with 223 rushing yards and 4 scores.

2019 (fr): Started 12 games at quarterback in helping lead the Sun Devils to an 8-5 mark and a win over Florida State in the Sun Bowl … Became first true freshman quarterback in Arizona State history to start a season-opener for the Sun Devils … Capped his rookie season throwing for 2,943 yards, 17 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions … Added 355 rushing yards and 3 TDs … Outplayed future NFL first round draft pick Justin Herbert in win over Oregon, throwing for 408 yards and 3 TDs in 31-28 victory over the Ducks … Completed 22-of-32 passes against Oregon … Connected with Brandon Aiyuk on an 81-yard TD with just under 4 minutes to extend ASU lead to 31-21 with 3:54 remaining in contest … Threw 3 TD passes in consecutive starts against UCLA, Oregon State and Oregon … In collegiate debut, passed for 284 yards and a pair of TDs and added a rushing score in 30-7 win over Kent State on August 29 … Missed Southern Cal game with an injury but returned the following week against Oregon State … Accounted for 4 TDs twice (3 pass, 1 rush vs. Washington State; 3 pass, 1 rush at UCLA) … Scored on a 17-yard run with 34 seconds left in 38-34 comeback win over Washington State.

High school: Put up some of the most impressive numbers at Cajon High School (San Bernadino, CA), breaking several school and state records in the process … A finalist in both the Elite 11 and The Opening passing competitions and considered by some scouts as the best Dual-threat Quarterback prospect in the country … Selected to the prestigious Under Armour All-American Game … Consensus four-star prospect amongst the major recruiting services. Ranked as the No. 83 overall prospect and the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback prospect in the country in 24/7 Sports’ Composite Rankings…24/7 Sports lists him as the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback prospect nationally in their own rankings…tabbed by Rivals as the No. 107 overall prospect and the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback prospect in the nation…currently sits at No. 109 in the ESPN 300, who rated him as the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in the class … A four-year varsity starter at Cajon High School, compiling a 44-10 record including back-to-back seasons with at least 12 wins… threw for a CIF-Southern Section record 14,007 yards and 170 touchdowns during a historic four-year career at Cajon High School … Added 3,645 rushing yards on 562 attempts and 41 rushing touchdowns showing off his unique athleticism … Produced back-to-back 6,000+ all-purpose yardage seasons as a junior and senior (12,487 total) … Completed 287-of-406 (70.7%) passes for 4,515 yards and 60 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, posting a 142.8 quarterback rating during an outstanding senior season … Was equally as effective on the ground in 2018 as he was in the air, rushing for 1,536 yards and 16 touchdowns … Averaged 322.5 passing yards and 109.7 rushing yards per game as a senior leading Cajon High School go 12-2 and reach the 2018 Southern Section Division 3 Championship … Broke onto the national scene with an eye-popping junior season, completing 321-of-459 (69.9%) passes for 5,136 yards and 62 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions…also rushed for 1,292 yards and 15 touchdowns, including a 99-yard touchdown run in 2017…the Cowboys went 14-2 and defeated Downey in the 2017 CIF Southern Section 4A Football Championship, earning a berth in the CIF State Football 2-AA Bowl Championship.

PERSONAL

Graduated from Arizona State … Pursuing a master’s degree in liberal arts.

2022

passing
ATT	YPA	PCT	YDS	INT	TD	COMPLETIONS
388.0	7.5	0.686	2913.0	3.0	17.0	266.0

rushing
YPC	TD	YDS	CAR	LONG
4.8	11.0	885.0	186.0	37.0

receiving
REC	YPR	TD	LONG	YDS
1.0	5.0	1.0	5.0	5.0

fumbles
REC	LOST	FUM
0.0	3.0	4.0