Wakeup call? Williams slips to No. 3 in Mock by Kirwan, Miller

In what could be a wakeup call for the legion of draftniks comfortable with USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the anointed first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, two of the best football minds in the business — Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller, cohosts of the must-hear Sirius XM's Movin the Chains — dropped him to No. 3 overall in the first mock draft of the season 

There were restraints on Friday's mock (e.g., no trades), and the two took turns picking, but they each passed on a chance to take Williams — Miller at No. 1 and Kirwan took No. 2 — before Williams slid to the New England Patriots at No. 3. Their next mock will add trades and be livlier, but, as always, their Country Friday Mock was a great production.

Overall, we at NFLDraftScout.com thought the mock on Movin' the Chains was pretty much on target for the usual reason: It was closely aligned with the way we see things. Only four of their first-round picks fell outside our own top 32.  We especially appreciated the common-sense approach to the top three quarterbacks, with Miller taking LSU's Jayden Daniels No. 1 (Chicago) and Kirwan — who also would have taken Daniel's No. 1 — grabbing North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye No. 2, for the Washington Commadanders. 

How did they dare allow Williams to slip? The same reasons we have outlined in his NDS profile — he makes too many mistakes with the ball and plays hero ball too often. The fact that he skipped workouts and medicals at the combine didn't help.  

"He runs into problems when he does too much," said Miller, himself a former NFL quarterback. "Too many fumbles for my liking. He is not a finished product — extremely talented but has a lot of work to do."

Kirwan, a former NFL team exec, and Miller agreed that Daniels' stock, in contrast to that of Williams', skyrocketed with a 2023 season that earned him the Heisman Trophy. Kirwan likened him to Baltimore's Lamar Jackson but with superior passing skills—pretty impressive considering Jackson is a two-time NFL MVP. As for Maye, who has been atop NDS's QB list most the year, Miller pointed out that the ex-Tar Heel standout has outstanding arm talent and is far more athletic than many think. He also impressed the MTC crew in an interview by demonstrating a sharp grasp of the game. 

After those quarterbacks went 1-2-3, the next to be named was Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, who went No. 12 (Kirwan) to the Denver Broncos. That is lower than some recent projections — which list him as high as No. 4 overall — but higher than we value him at NDS. 

The lowest NDS-rated player in MTC's first-round mock is Florida State DT Braden Fisk, whom Miller has going to Detroit at No. 29. He is No. 41 on our list. Good pick, really, considering Fisk is the animalistic type who should fit right into Lions coach Dan Campbell's defense. 

Players not taken by Kirwan or Miller whom NDS sees as potential first-rounders were LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas (NDS No. 24), Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (No. 25), fast but small Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy (No. 29), North Carolina State OLB Payton Wilson (No. 32) and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix (No. 33). 

If you missed the live airing, the show is availble on the Sirius app. Meantime, here is a summation, showing the picks, along with our own ratings and the height, weight and class of each player selected.