NFL Draft: Surprises in updated QB ratings
(Editor's Note: Thes ratings are from the week after Indianapolis Combine. We are working on a full slate of updated ratings)
NFLDraftScout.com posted post-Indy ratings and they are unlike almost all others out there, especially at the celebrated quarterback position.
Opinions on quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft have a life of their own and are almost impervious to thoughtful consideration, assuming any is in the offing. Southern California's magic man, Caleb Williams, is the popular, almost unanimous, choice as the top quarterback and best player available in this draft.
There is plenty of evidence to support this, but we don't see it as a slam dunk. It is almost a foregone conclusion that Williams will be the first player picked, just as Alabama's Bryce Young rode the rising red tide of opinion to a No. 1 pick last year, despite the fact that thoughtful evaluation easily showed that Ohio State's C.J. Stroud was significantly more NFL ready. We do believe Williams is superior to Young, but that's not the point.
In the runup to the draft, it is almost as if public and peer pressure determines that first pick more than common sense. Imagine the shock if Chicago does NOT pick Williams with the first pick. Social media would explode, as if that should have any meaning. We think that price was paid last year when Carolina's Frank Reich surprised us and took Young. Reich, an excellent football guy, is now jobless.
Fact is, Williams may have the highest ceiling, in terms of potential, but there are two other quarterbacks in this draft we believe are a safer pick to excel on the short term and maybe overall — North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's ascending Jayden Daniels. We break down these players in our latest ratings, and will continue to update the ratings and analysis. Maybe things will change, but unless these players start working out, it is unlikely. Participation at the Indy Combine and at early Pro Days has been pathetic. There are sometimes valid reasons for why a player doesn't partake, but this year too many seem to be above it all. It is a bad trend for a sport that is based on teamwork.
As for the always-dominant quarterback ranting, we break down the 2024 class into three distinct divisions:
1. Potential NFL Stars — Maye, Williams, Daniels and possibly Michael Penix (Washington) if he can stay healthy.
2. Possible NFL starters — J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) and Bo Nix (Oregon), who had interesting college careers.
3. Intriguing prospects — Spencer Rattler (South Carolina), Michael Pratt (Tulane), Jordan Travis (Florida State), who each have significant upside if things go right.
In all, NFLDraftScout.com rates 18 quarterbacks as "draftable" and each of the 10 of them not mentioned here has fanatical followers who believe their guy is underrated. Hey, it happens. Can you say Tom Brady? Brock Purdy? Hell, Joe Montana was a third-round pick and Johnny Unitas was drafted in the ninth round, and released in training camp.
Tape trumps analytics
Our quarterback evaluations are simplified, derived from looking at game tapes more than analytics.
We believe Maye has arm talent akin to that of Justin Herbert and, based on his (and his family's) talent on the basketball court, has athletic ability that is vastly underrated. He needs to improve his progression and show more discretion in his decision-making, but isn't that what we said of Josh Allen back in the day? We admit to being seduced by Maye's arm, which will dilute and perforate defenses across 53 1/3 yards wide by, say, 65 yards with a flick of his wrist.
Williams is undeniably entertaining, especially on off-platform plays. But there are red flags aplenty. We want to see more plays on time and on target, and his ball security and sack ratio are just bad. Hero ball may be zero ball against NFL defenses. It's fixable, but some is hardwired, so it may take time.
Daniels is intriguing. In 2022 he was not in sync with the passing game and was too run-first. In 2023 his play improved vastly, reminiscent of that one great year Joe Burrow had at LSU. We are concerned by his slight physique, much as we were RGIII back in the day — though not nearly as much as a year ago by Bryce Young's. But the talent and production in 2023 were undeniable.
Top three regardless of position
Overall, we see three players who are the best in this draft regardless of position: wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), offensive tackle Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and TE/offensive weapon Brock Bowers (Georgia).
This draft has a concentration of good talent at wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback.
Wide receivers: Although it is doubtful he will be drafted No. 1, Harrison is atop the whole list as the best of the best, leading a loaded wide receiver class that includes as many as eight who could justifiably be drafted in the first round — with three in the top 10. Approximately 20 wide receivers could go among the top 100 and 47 are rated as draftable.
Offensive tackles: Topped by Alt and Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), NFLDraftScout.com lists seven potential first-round offensive tackles, 13 in the top 100 and 27 we deem draftable.
Cornerbacks: Led by Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) , NFLDraftScout.com shows six potential first-round cornerbacks, 15 in the top 100 and a whopping 44 as worthy of being selected.
And at quarterback, teams will overreach, and we will overrate to account for that. Our list shows six potential first-round quarterbacks and 18 rated draftable.
Quarterbacks rated in 2024 draft by NFLDraftScout.com
DRAFT-RATED WIDE RECEIVERS
DRAFT-RATED OFFENSIVE TACKLES
DRAFT-RATED CORNERBACKS